Free Agency 2023

 

As we entered Free Agency in mid-March, it was clear the Eagles were in a similar boat to many past post-Super Bowl participants.  They had built a terrific roster which most judged the NFL’s best and deepest in 2022, but were dealing with the combination of a plethora of expiring contracts, limited cap space, and an expanding % of $ required for their star QB.  So the remainder of the NFL was circling like vultures, looking to pick quality Eagle players off as they became available.  Lets look where we are 10 days after the beginning of “legalized tampering:”

Few GM’s are as capable as Roseman. Howie KNOWS the market.  Two things to discern when considering players- Valuation vs. Evaluation.  Valuation is the $ value a player can expect on the open market.  Evaluation is the projection of how a player will perform on your team, in your system, based upon past performance.  Howie knows value.  His “valuation” of players is unparalleled, he understands both explicitly and implicitly what the market will bear (Howie also may understand how to manipulate the salary cap better than any human being alive today).  Regarding evaluation, Howie is very good, but far from perfect.  He’s had his mistakes (Consider last years acquisition of Bears defensive end Robert Quinn for a 4^th round draft pick in this upcoming draft as one of Howie’s few ’22 evaluation misses in an otherwise Executive of the year performance).  Free Agency is about Valuation and Evaluation… When to let a player walk (or not attempt to sign him) because his projected performance, even if good, is too high a % of the Salary cap… Or when to acquire or keep a player because his projected contribution as a future Eagle is worth the limited salary cap $ the team will need to commit.  

 

On offense, even after a couple additions, free agency has taken a bit of the Eagles strength, but they should still rebound entering the draft without a discernable offensive weakness.  The Eagles lost 2 key starters (RG Isaac Seumalo and RB Miles Sanders) and three key backups (QB Gardner Minshew, LT/LG Andre Dillard and WR Zach Pascal) while adding a solid backup in return (QB Marcus Mariota) and a wildcard (key contributor?) in the running back room (Rashad Penny).  They retained 2 of their free agents on offense- 1 starter (Jason Kelce) and 1 key backup (RB Boston Scott).   The 5 losses were anticipated, and one would expect Howie’s superb skills in contingency planning have not only perhaps already masked the losses, but may see further reinforcements directed as alternate solutions if the visible ones do not pan out.  Let’s look at the details on the offensive side of the ball… Additions and retentions are in Green, losses are in Red:

Kelce- It all started with the announcement at the outset of Free Agency that Jason Kelce is coming back.  First team all pro Center 5 of the last 6 seasons, he is a lock Hall-of-Famer now, the only question being will he be first ballot.  The heart of the Eagles team and the definition of a great leader, even if his play dips a bit in his age 35 (12^th) season (all with the Birds), his return can only be toasted as a coup.  He will line up with a modest salary increase from 14mil to approaching 14.5 mil, and will be worth every penny, not only with what he brings on the field, but off it as well (The long term solution to replace Kelce started with the drafting of Isaac Seaumalo in 2016, then Landon Dickerson in 2021.  Since Kelce has played at the highest of levels much longer than expected, these 2 players subsequently found tremendous success at Guard, with the new “plan A” at center once Kelce retires being last year’s 2^nd round pick Cam Jurgens, a physical yet mobile player in the Kelce mold).   

 

Seumalo- The return of Kelce meant the loss of Right Guard Isaac Seumalo.   Seumalo had a career year.  He was terrific, becoming a Pro Bowl alternate while grading out as a top 10 NFL offensive lineman per Pro Football Forecast (PFF).  Amazingly, even at this level he was the “weak link” on the #1 offensive line in the NFL.  The unfortunate reality in the modern Cap-constrained NFL is you can’t afford to pay everyone.  The Eagles inability to afford a multi-year deal for Isaac (Seumalo at his age carries some injury risk too) had him leave for the Steelers at 8mil/yr for 3 years (leading to likely 6^th round compensatory pick compensation back to the Eagles in the ’24 draft).  While Cam Jurgens is the eventual heir to Kelce at Center, it is anticipated the ’22 2^nd round rookie will fill in adequately for Seumalo in ‘23.  Highly thought of backup guard Sua Opeta, or backup tackle/guard Jack Driscoll will be plans “B” and “C” behind Jurgens at Right Guard.  With Howie, though, there’s always a multitude of contingencies.  Look at the possibility of a ’23 rookie (either a draft pick or UDFA- The Eagles are superb at finding very good backup linemen amongst undrafted rookies) to provide further offensive line depth and the emergency plan “D” to resolve the loss of Seumalo.  Whatever the solution, the burden on the replacing player will be somewhat eased by being dropped into a slot between 2 future Hall-Of-Famers (Kelce and Lane Johnson) on the right side of the O-Line.

 

Dillard- Continuing with the O-line, Andre Dillard lost the battle for left tackle a few years ago.  While he had some initial issues (maturity, physicality, strength) to resolve after getting selected in the 1^st round to replace Jason Peters, there was no shame losing the competition to the incredibly talented Jordan Mialata.  Dillard slotted in as a very talented backup left tackle and left guard for Philly, having bulked up before his final season.  Dillard played admirably in relief when called upon his last 2 seasons with the Eagles. The Eagles lose some 2^nd string depth with Dillard moving on (3 years, 29mil).  He will bring a 5^th or 6^th round compensatory ’24 pick with that signing, and O-Line guru Jeff Stoutland will need to determine who the 1^st offensive tackle off the bench will be in 2023.  The current plan “A” would be Jack Driscoll.  Plan B? There’s a decent chance the Eagles spend a pick in the first 3 rounds of next month’s NFL draft for a player capable of addressing depth at Tackle and Guard.  The idea here is to acquire a player as the “heir apparent” to Right Tackle Lane Johnson (2 years prior to Lane’s potential retirement, anticipated 2025 at the earliest) that could simultaneously compete with Cam Jurgens at Right Guard. 

 

Minshew – Although a bit of a disappointment across ’21-’22 with a 1-3 record starting in relief of Jalen Hurts, backup QB Gardner Minshew was well thought of, highly valued amongst the league’s backups, and inexpensive as he completed his rookie deal.  His knowledge of former Offensive Coordinator (OC) Shane Steichen’s offense made him an obvious defection to the Indianapolis Colts with their new Head coach. For Minshew, an incentive laden 1 year deal guaranteeing 3.5mil made sense to serve as the Colts stop gap.  With the #4 pick, it seems likely Indianapolis will end up drafting a QB prospect that the team can bring along slowly. It’s a low risk, high reward deal for both parties. While the Colts starting QB position likely hasn’t been filled with this move, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Minshew is the week 1 starter for the Colts. “Minshew Mania” has caught on in the AFC South in the past (This deal also likely puts the nail in the coffin of Nick Foles’ Indianapolis Colts career). Minshew wanted the chance to start, which the Eagles could not offer him.  And this, of course, left a void at backup QB for Philly…

Mariota- With Gardner Minshew signing with Indianapolis, the Birds found themselves in need of a new backup QB behind Jalen Hurts. The top option remaining on the market was Marcus Mariota. And now he’s joining the Birds on a one-year contract worth $5 million ($1.5 million more than Minshew received) with a max value (via incentives) of $8 million. Multiple members of Nick Sirianni’s coaching staff have notable ties to Mariota. Eagles TE coach Jason Michael was his offensive coordinator (OC) in Ten. for 2 seasons before being moved down to be his QB coach for 2 additional seasons. Eagles QB coach Alex Taney, recently promoted after Brian Johnson was elevated to OC, was Mariota’s teammate on the Titans in 2015. Eagles special teams (ST) coordinator Michael Clay was Mariota’s teammate at Oregon in 2012.  And Eagles’ star wide receiver A.J. Brown caught his first NFL touchdown pass via a Mariota throw that year, as they were teammates in 2019. Entering his age 30 season, Mariota brings a lot of experience and, in his prime, can be effective should he have to play… He figures to be surrounded by a superb support system. The Eagles’ offensive line is one of the best in the league, there’s a terrific running game for him to lean on, and the coaching staff on the offensive side remains strong even after losing OC Steichen. Mariota can obviously make things happen on the ground himself; he set a career high in rushing yards last season with 438 (5.2 average). The jury is out on who’s the better passer, Minshew or Mariota (that remains to be seen).  But certainly, Mariota has the higher pedigree (2^nd player taken in the draft vs. Minshew being a 6^th round pick), greater experience (74 starts including 13 NFC starts last year), and perhaps most important- the Eagle offense will not have to change as much if Hurts is out, given Mariota’s running and scrambling skills. 

Sanders: Miles Sanders, as James Taylor would sing, has “Gone to Carolina…” 4 years, $25 million, with $13 million guaranteed, likely netting the Eagles a ’24 6^th round compensatory pick. Sanders is a poster child for how far running back contracts have fallen. A decade ago a 25-year-old running back coming off a 1,200+ yard season would have commanded over $15M a year, but now?  Assuming Sanders could remain a 1200 yard+ staple would have been short sighted. He benefitted massively from the Eagles’ running schemes and a system that naturally allowed him to flourish.  He performed well, but unlike his 1^st 2 seasons, his breakaway “big play” capacity diminished along with his receiving skills as he became a more disciplined runner.  Carolina’s offensive line is underrated at opening holes in the running game, and Sanders will retain the ability to be an impact player. So a solid upgrade at the position for the Panthers that doesn’t break the bank coincided with the Eagles need to reduce cost in their RB room.  Even if Sanders regresses to the mean & gives the Panthers 1000 all-purpose yards a season, this was a good deal for a team that needed to move on from Christian McCaffrey.  The Eagles?  They need to look for a more creative solution.  Here they aren't limited to a single choice, but can consider an amalgam:

• It is unlikely Jalen Hurts will see a dramatic decrease in carries during his age 25 season.  His contribution reduces by more than a bit the overall workload of any Eagle #1 RB.   
• Resign veteran RB Boston Scott & perhaps amp his role a bit… He can run, catch, block, accepts his “#3” role and can start against the NY Giants 😊
• Consider adding a cheaper (than Miles) veteran back to the mix- See below, Rashad Penny
• Increase role (snaps/carries) of rostered rookie contract RBs K Gainwell & maybe Trey Sermon.
• Draft someone to add to the RB room (TBD next month).  Isiah Pacheco demonstrated for K.C. in the Super Bowl the potential value of a 7^th round rookie selection.

Scott- RB Boston Scott appears to be attempting to set the record for 1-year deals with the Eagles.  This one, his 4^th (at $1.75mil), keeps the #3RB position a solid one.  In 2022, he carried 54 times for 217 yards (4.0 YPC) and 3 TDs, although he didn't do as much as he had in the past as a receiver (five catches for 15 yards). The Eagle favorite “Giant Killer” (86-414-9 rushing and 17-222-1 receiving in 8 games vs. NYG) will be back for his 6th season, his 4^th in Philadelphia.

Penny — He’s an admitted injury risk who’s only played in ½ of his NFL games since getting drafted 5 years ago.  But a healthy Rashad Penny operating as the RB1 behind the Eagles offensive line is a perfect fit, with the former first-rounder set to feast on early downs as a strong downhill runner. Among running backs with at least 100 carries from 2021 to 2022: 

• Penny’s 6.2 yards per carry and 4.4 yards after contact per attempt both lead the NFL,
• His 0.23 missed tackles forced per carry ranks 11^th in the NFL.
• Penny was 2^nd to Nick Chubb the last 2 seasons in years after contact.  

He may not be a three-down player (Penny is not a good receiving back / 3^rd down back), but this is a picture-perfect marriage (Bonus- Penny is not part of the compensatory formula, so won’t reduce any picks the Eagles are eligible to receive in ’24). The ex-Seahawk cost just $600,000 guaranteed on a one-year deal. The Eagles have 2 rostered RB’s (Gainwell & Scott) than can excel on 3^rd down.  There’s a world where a healthy Penny lands as one of the better fits in all of free agency.

Pascal- Zach Pascal was a favorite of Nick Sirianni’s, brought in to do the dirty work as the 4^th receiver and run blocking receiver last year in what became one of the league’s best passing games.  Altruistically accepting his statistically worst season to continually do the dirty work in the Eagle wide receiver room, he only caught 15 balls in ’22 after catching 150 his first 4 NFL seasons.  He was rated by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s 3^rd best blocking wide receiver last year.  He moves onto Arizona (and Jonathan Gannon’s new spot as Head Coach) via Free Agency on a 2 year deal ($ value not yet known, but likely close to veteran minimum- assume 1mil / year).  Pascal’s signing will likely not be significant enough to bring the Eagles any ’24 compensatory pick compensation.  So, the Eagles will need a replacement for Pascal.  Expect the Eagles to fill this 4^th receiver role relatively inexpensively, either thru a lower tier FA, a rookie draft pick, or by elevating someone’s role currently on the roster (one possibility would be 6^th wide receiver Greg Ward).   

 

 

 

On defense, losses here were expected.  The Eagles lost 5 defensive starters (DT Javon Hargrave, Safeties Marcus Epps and CJ Gardner-Johnson, and LB’s Kyzir White and TJ Edwards), virtually the entire starting center of the defense.  On top of that, “ring seekers” Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, both valuable interior defensive line rotational pieces in the 2^nd half, likely won’t be back, further hurting the (now) “soft center” of the Eagles D.  How to compensate?  

• Maintain the flanks:  The Eagles insured the return of cornerback Darius Slay (expected) and FA James Bradberry (pleasant surprise). Both provide defensive continuity, leadership on the back end and above average to excellent CB play.
• Return the “Hall-Of-Very-Good:” Re-signed leaders / Free Agent D-linemen Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox.  Both are iconic team leaders and provide good to very good rotational play.
• Sophomores: Three ’22 rookies, 3^rd round selection Nakobe Dean, 1^st round selection Jordan Davis and Undrafted free agent Reid Blankenship will be expected to assume starting roles (Of the 3 Blankenship was ironically the one most heavily tested last year, and he performed admirably.  The other 2 will be expected to deliver on incredible college resumes).   
• 2^nd tier: The Eagles are already adding 2^nd tier free agents, in some cases for depth, in others as possible replacement starters.  So far: Greedy Williams, Nicholas Morrow and Justin Evans. 
• Draft: The Eagles have 4 selections in the first 3 rounds, including 2 first rounders in next months draft.  Expect 2, and more likely 3 of these first 4 draft picks to be rookies.  Presuming so, they will likely see significant ’23 snaps, especially the first rounders.his
• Trades/Late Free Agents: Last year, Howie acquired 3 critical players (CJ Gardner Johnson, AJ Brown, James Bradberry) between the draft and August 30^th.  Roseman repeatedly beats the drum that player acquisition is a 24X7X365 activity.  He backs that up with repeated action.

In more detail, what has transpired on the defensive side of the ball… Again, additions and retentions are in Green, losses are in Red:

Gardner-Johnson- CJ Gardner Johnson is a disappointing loss in the secondary.  The Eagles offered the safety a 3-year 24mil dollar deal, 2^nd best (although a distant 2^nd) for Safety $ in Free Agency this year.  CJG declined deciding to accept a 1-year $8mil “prove it” deal with the Detroit Lions.  He was surprisingly only ranked the 49^th best safety of 130 ranked in 2022 by Pro Football Focus, not bad but not as good as “the eye test.”  He tied for the lead league in interceptions (6) even though he missed 5 games.  He had a good Super Bowl (one of the few on the defense that did).  And he is a hybrid player who has tremendous skills as a slot corner too, which enabled the Birds to disguise him in coverage.  But he was a “high maintenance” volatile player which brings “alternate costs.”  (Examples- 1- Per his former position coach, it took him a month after his arrival to settle down and get along reasonably with his new teammates. 2-During the FA negotiation process, he posted, then quickly deleted immature tweets about being unappreciated.  3- He came with a clear “me first” rather than “team first” attitude). Both sides amicably moved on, although the Eagles will now need to find the right guy to replace CJG.  Most likely, expect the position to be addressed in Free agency, or less likely via a late in the pre-season move (last year, CJG himself was acquired on August 30^th by Roseman via trade from the Saints for a ’23 4^th round pick).  Least likely, but always a possibility, is the Eagles spend early draft collateral to acquire a starting level safety.  Reviewing 4 best (Eagle fit) current free agent safeties available on the market (Someone like an unhappy Kevin Byard of the Titans is not mentioned per current cost and availability):

• John Johnson: Very good with the Rams for 4 years, he signed a 3 year $34mil contract with Cleveland in 2021.  Solid in Cleveland, including a good season last year for the Browns, he is 28 and was a June 1 “future cut” designation by the Browns.
• Adrian Amos: A steady 30-year old, he’s a veteran with good leadership skills, and was with Sean Desai in Chicago for 4 years while Desai was a defensive quality control coach, so if Desai goes with a revised coverage scheme, can theoretically help in the implementation of changes.  Can mentor young safeties (Reid Blankenship or newly acquired Justin Evans).  He’s not a “big play” guy like CJG but can be a steady, affirming presence in the secondary.
• Taylor Rapp: Taken 61^st in the NFL draft by the Rams 4 years ago, he brings youth at age 25. Rapp has been a tackling machine since entering the NFL, 's amassing 330 across 57 career games.  Some posit he doesn't cover that well in the back end- he's broken up 23 passes and has 9 interceptions in his four seasons.  
• Jalen Mills: Played 5 seasons in Philly before leaving for New England in 2021, he’s now 29.   While he won a Super Bowl with the Eagles as their CB, he was always a bit slow at corner, so transitioning to safety now after getting cut by New England would make sense.  He played well for the Patriots in 2021, but had a down year in 2022 while dealing with a groin injury that caused him to miss 7 games. Mills recently tweeted that he's a safety at heart. He's 29, the Eagles know him well, but he appears best suited as a #3 safety and backup CB as an Eagle. 

Bradberry- Another late in the ’22 pre-season “get” by Howie, CB James Bradberry played on a $7.5mil “prove it” deal in Philly. It was expected he’d be too expensive to bring back. Bradberry made clear he’d be trying to maximize what all anticipated would be his best opportunity at a big contract.  In addition to being not only a Pro-Bowler but 2^nd team All-Pro in ’22, consider these ESPN NFL Next Gen Stats: 

• 0.7 yds/coverage snap (1^st in NFL among outside CBs w/at least 250 coverage snaps),
• minus-33 EPA (Expected Pts allowed/play) allowed when targeted (again 1st in the NFL),
• minus-10.6 receptions allowed over expectation (AGAIN 1st in the NFL)!  

And this isn’t the first time Bradberry’s played exceptionally well — he was very good with the Giants in ’20 after multiple good seasons in Carolina. Roseman was able to sign him for a 3-year $38mil commitment. Ultimately, this is about getting an elite player at a key position for a total bargain. Just 1 year ago, the Chargers signed J.C. Jackson on a contract with $40 million fully guaranteed. The Eagles are getting Bradberry for half the guarantee a year later — when the salary cap is higher.

Slay- Darius Slay was not a free agent, but Roseman needed to rework his contract to create additional 2023 cap space.  Slay was voted to the Pro Bowl, and although his first half of ’22 was significantly better than his second half, that award was not an empty gesture to an older player (Slay turned 32 this past New Years Eve, so will turn 33 as this upcoming ’23 season nears completion). Taking his full ‘22-‘23 season into account, he had, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), been the #4 cornerback in the NFL, including #4 in coverage.  Slay wanted to leverage his success by getting 2nd and 3rd year guarantees on what would otherwise have been his contracts 2023 lame duck year. 

Howie, meanwhile, wanted to sign 2 of his 3 star defensive backs (Slay, Bradberry and CJ Gardner Johnson). Slay was not a free agent, but Howie recognized he could likely at most afford only 2 of the 3.  So when safety CJG turned down an Eagles initial 3-year offer, Roseman pivoted to add guarantees and another year to Slay’s deal ($26mil 2023 cap number, $17mil guaranteed, became 2 years at $42mil, with $23mil guaranteed).  Note this is just slightly more than the same first 2 year guarantees on the Bradberry deal…  Howie definitely did not want to create decisions amongst his 2 lock down corners.  And Roseman, while inserting 3^rd years in both Slay’s and Bradberry’s deals, did not want to guarantee too much more $ in ’24-‘25 for what will then be a 34 year old, in case Slay cannot maintain his hi level of play.  Slay did balk, and Roseman (contingency!) allowed Slay and his agent (Drew Rosenhaus) to test the market by allowing them to check Darius’s value in a trade with other teams.  Howie knew Slay’s wife loves it here in Philly, that Slay had enjoyed the ascending success of the Eagles these past 2 seasons, and Slay had been very emotional when voted a team captain in ‘22.  Howie banked on Slay having just completed a very satisfying 3 year run here.  Finally, Howie knew (contingency!) he could likely still offer CJG a bit more if Slay did not return.  So in the end, Roseman got Slay for 2 more years, with a voidable 3^rd year in the package, while optimizing the cash spread.  The Eagles have one of the best CB duos in the NFL (trios if Avonte Maddox in the slot is considered).

 

Williams- Greedy Williams was the 46th overall pick in 2019. Injuries have limited him to 39 games (21 starts) in 4 seasons. . He has 99 career tackles and 2 INTs. His best season came in 2021, when he had 41 tackles, 2 INTs, and 10 pass breakups while playing in 16 games (8 starts).  Surprising Williams chose Philly (1 year deal and $ value unknown, likely low), a team with a pair of proven CBs (Slay & Bradberry) and a good nickel-back (Avonte Maddox). Williams was surrounded by young corners in Cleveland. Williams may have understood his value and appears to have chosen somewhere he could further develop, learning behind 2 pro bowlers for a year and focusing on playing time in the future.  Bradberry and Slay can certainly help him out. Having a pair of savvy veterans to mentor him will be a good thing. In college, Williams had 6 INTs as a redshirt freshman at LSU and became a star. But he hasn’t developed after that, not coming close to living up to his raw ability. One reason?  Williams' pro career has been derailed by injuries… He missed four games as a ’19 rookie with a hamstring injury. In 2020, he suffered career-threatening nerve damage in his shoulder during an offseason practice, costing him heavy time in ’20 and ’21.  In 2022, he was buried on the depth chart behind Denzel Ward and 2021 first-round pick Greg Newsome and played just 105 defensive snaps.  Williams won’t turn 26 till December… he’s got some time & some intriguing traits. He's 6'2 and he ran a 4.37 40 at his Combine, a nice baseline.  For Philly this is low risk & could be an interesting reward, but this author is not convinced. While Williams has skills & will have the opportunity to learn the tricks of the trade from two of the best CBs in the league, he’s taken a long period of time (since early in college) without showing significantly improved play.  Still, this is the cost-effective kind of low-risk, high-reward move Roseman loves.  If Williams develops, the Eagles not only have added depth on the outside, but it will also give them improved versatility with Zech McPhearson perhaps being allowed to cross-train in the slot. The Butterfly Effect from there could be allowing Avonte Maddox to undertake a hybrid slot/safety role on a more permanent basis. 

 

Hargraves- As expected, the Eagles lost Javon Hargraves… to their biggest NFC competition, the 49ers. But his 3-year record in Philly, while successful, is somewhat marred by injury (IR 3 times), and the $21mil a year for 4 years for a 30-year-old rotational player was just too much money.  Congrats to him. He was a good player for his 3 seasons in Philly and developed into a terrific pass rusher but was sub-par against the run.  He was a star in 2022, racking up 60 tackles and 11 sacks. He also had a good 2021 season, making 63 tackles and 7.5 sacks, plus a trip to the Pro Bowl.  He lined up next to Fletcher Cox.  Plan “A”- Expect Jordan Davis and Milton Williams to get some of his snaps in 2023.  Plan “B” will come from a player to be drafted early in next month’s draft.  Plan “C” could be slotting Brandon Graham inside like they did successfully back in 2021.  If the Eagles have a plan “D” here, it’d be a late in the pre-season trade or unexpected Free Agent acquisition.  The Hargraves signing will net the Eagles a 2024 3rd round compensatory pick. 

Cox- “Fletch” was one of the most dominant NFL players on the defensive interior between 2014 and 2019, producing a 92.7 PFF grade that trailed only Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt over that span. His PFF grade has declined every year since 2019, though, with career lows in overall grade (60.2) and run-defense grade (53.5) in 2022.  Still, that remains above average play that included 7 sacks, and he improved in the seasons 2^nd half of ’23 when the Eagles were able to reduce his snap count with a deeper rotation inside (Thanks to the signings of Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh).  Unfortunately, Suh and Joseph are 2 DT’s likely gone.  The Eagles will return rookie 1^st round pick Jordan Davis, 2^nd year ascending interior player Milton Williams, and a pair of intriguing possibilities in Marlon Tuipulotu and Noah Ellis (both stashed on IR a large part of last season).  Additionally, 1 of the top 3 picks in the ’23 Eagles draft is likely to be another young interior lineman.  At 10 million for ’23 Fletch will not be cheap, but:

• Surrounding youth needs a mentor – Cox has demonstrated an affinity for the leadership role, 
• He’ll make 4mil less than he did in ’22, a similar decrease from his ’21 salary,
• He’ll likely rotate in a six-shooter of quality (otherwise) youthful alternate choices inside, enabling the snap count reduction which last year demonstrated his increased effectiveness. 
• Re-signing one of your own players does not adversely affect compensatory picks in ’24.

Fletch is 32, and “Thirty is Dirty” in the NFL.  But with an appropriate snap count, Cox can be a valuable ’23 commodity.  Another 2022-2023 example of this is Brandon Graham…

Graham- Brandon Graham will be back at defensive end for the Eagles. The deal: One year, $6 million. Sure, he’ll be 35 years old in April. But Graham had:

• An excellent 2022 as a rotational player for the Birds, turning in a career high 11 sacks,
• A 28% pass rush win rate at edge that ranked 3^rd  at the position,
• A Pro Football Focus ranking as a top 10 edge rusher,
• Another year of infectious positivity as an acknowledged leader of the defense & of the team.

 The Eagles are losing 5 defensive starters to free agency, so keeping Graham in the fold will help ease the pain. The base price is expected to be just a portion of the $6 million max value, so bringing back a high-impact leader/role player at a key position at that price — even at Graham’s age, is a no-brainer.

Edwards- TJ Edwards was a real success story in Philly.  Another UFA who became not only a starter, but the play-caller and a Pro Bowl alternate in the middle of the defense, he was a top 10 NFL off-ball LB in 2022.  He remade himself to an extent, and has a natural instinct for the game.  But Edwards was occasionally exposed in coverage and played his worst game as an Eagle in the Super Bowl, when it appeared he could do little right.  He is moving on… To his home town Bears at 6+ mil per year in a multi-year deal.  This signing will get the Eagles a compensatory pick at the fifth or sixth-round level.  Next to the loss of Hargraves and equal to the loss of CJG, replacing Edwards, the play caller in the center of the defense, will be a big 2023 challenge.  Nakobe Dean might be the guy to do the play calling, but he'll more likely line up outside in Kyzir White's old spot (weak side LB) and call the plays from there.  Given the responsibility of the position, I'd expect Howie to fill it in Free Agency:  

• Plan A: A “starting capable” Free Agent interior LB.  Since they don’t like to spend $ at this position, anticipate an “affordable” (read below average or limited) solution, although one surprise would be finding the $ to pay Bobby Wagner, an aging but still superb MLB, on a 1 year ring seeking deal.
• Plan B: Ideally positioned in the NFL outside, play 2^nd year player Nakobe Dean inside.  While mentally capable and with good coverage skills and instincts, the 2^nd year player is somewhat undersized (5’11”, 230) for the role. Although he is a good choice as a 3-down LB, and perfect as the D play-caller.
• Plan C: Draft… While this is possible, I don’t see the Eagles spending draft capital here on a player that could come up to speed quickly enough to start in 2023. What is more likely is the swap of a pick for a veteran with tht competence… Again, unlikely. 

White- Weakside LB Kyzir White is signing a two-year, $11M max deal with the Arizona Cardinals.  White was a solid starter in the Eagles’ defense last season, totaling 110 tackles, 7 PBUs and 3 TFLs. He’s cromulent, he rarely makes mistakes, but did not make any big plays either.  Still, former DC Jonathan Gannon will welcome one of his veterans to lead a revising Arizona D.  At an average yearly cost of $5.5 million, White will likely get the Eagles a compensatory pick at the sixth-round level.  Plan A to replace White would be 2^nd year player Nakobe Dean, who is mentally capable with good coverage skills, instincts and, although a bit short, otherwise has good physical traits for the position.  Plan B would be newly signed veteran LB Nicholas Morrow.  Morrow was signed either for this role or as a depth player.  Plan C would be allowing one of the backups, Christian Ellis and/or Davonte Taylor, to compete for the role (Ellis has shown promise but asking the ST ace to start on the D might be too much for him, and the former physically gifted 3^rd round pick Taylor has been unable to step up do to a combination of injuries and the cerebral challenge of the position during his first 3 seasons). The unlikely plan D is again a solution in the draft- With currently only six picks next month, finding a starting rookie LB in the draft is a reach.

Morrow- Morrow, 27, was an undrafted rookie free agent in 2017 (Greenville, an NCAA Division 3 school in Illinois), but has come into the NFL and has 46 career starts for the Raiders and Bears, including all 17 games for Chicago last year.  Like TJ Edwards, he made it as an UDFA (with the Raiders), and then signed a 1-year deal with the Bears after hitting Free Agency last off season.  He started all 17 of their 2022 games with 116 tackles (11 for loss), 14th-most in the league among LB’s (in 79 career games he has 3 picks, four sacks and 31 tackles for loss).  But per PFF, he graded out as 52^nd among 60 off-ball LB’s, and per Reuben Frank at NBC sports he signed “a cheap, one-year contract with a minimal guarantee that gives the Eagles a player with some experience and upside but very little or no cap implications if they don’t make the team.”  So the signing will not hurt Philly compensatory picks in 2024.  It represents a “Flyer” on a player whose upside would be to try to replace Kyzir White, but more likely compete as a depth option at LB and ST.  

Epps- Marcus Epps developed into an effective starting Safety for the Super Bowl bound Eagles in ‘22.  Acquired by the Birds in a trade with the Vikings 4 years ago (he had been a 6^th round draft selection by Minnesota), he worked hard to become a starter.  He was ok in coverage and “brought the wood.”  But he wasn’t a big playmaker, so the emergence of Reed Blankenship made him expendable.  There's an argument to be made that when the undrafted rookie Blankenship got his opportunities, he was a marginally better player than (4^th year veteran) Epps.  Still, Epps was a good role player in his own right, getting 2 years at $6mil per to move on with the Raiders.  This signing will get the Eagles a compensatory pick at the sixth-round level.  Epps will almost certainly be replaced by Blankenship.  

Evans- Justin Evans was a talented former 2nd round pick by the Bucs who started at Safety early in his rookie year with a pretty good 2019 performance for Tampa Bay.  Then he started his first 10 games in his 2nd season till his career was essentially put-on long-term hold by a pair of injuries.  First was a major turf toe problem, although he only lost the last 6 games of 2020 there.  But that was followed, during his recovery, by a more serious Achilles tear.  It took 2 years to fully heal from the Achilles.  Finally returning last year, ironically replacing safety CJG in New Orleans, starting 4 games.  He played in 15, getting a lot of snaps.  Like Gardner-Johnson, he’s a “hybrid” player who can man Safety or the slot corner.  For the Eagles, this acquisition may draw some comparisons to last season’s off-season acquisition of Jaquiski Tarte… He could be a depth player with upside, or he may not make the team.  The Eagles themselves announced the signing as a “depth addition,” suggesting he’s not the “Plan A" solution to replace starting safeties Marcus Epps and CJG. 

 

Is Howie, surprisingly, rolling it back? At least 1 more year for the 30+ crowd, showing the faith with new contracts for older players again (Cox, Graham, Kelce, Slay, Bradberry), while allowing younger ones (Epps, CJG, TJ Edwards, Miles Sanders, Kyzir White…) to walk.  Why, after the lessons when seeming to do the same thing after the 2017 Super Bowl?  I, for one, expected some retentions, but with a more youthful chronological mix.  

• The Eagles are not bereft of young talent. At least 4 “sophomores” (Jordan Davis, Cam Jurgens, Reed Blankenship, Nakobe Dean) will be expected to replace older departing players. 
• Incoming draftees will be expected fill some of the voids. 
• All 5 older retained players had top 10 performances, per PFF, in 2022.  Of the departing “youth group,” there performances were more “above average to good.”
• 3 of the “older player” contracts are limited to 1 year.  The others are 3 years, but have “out clauses” after 2.”

Compensatory (“Comp”) picks factor heavily into this- A maximum of 4 can be acquired for departing players.  Howie is using the formula, balancing these future 2024 resources against re-signing alternative players to his high performing older ones (Re-signing your own players does not count against you in the comp pick formula.  Signing other teams free agents can offset your lost players, negating comp picks). Thus the high number of 1 year re-signings.

Eagle Lesson- Howie is perhaps the NFL’s best when it comes to valuation and contingency planning, and he is pretty high on evaluation too.  He clearly maintains an integrated, complex roadmap with “what-if” conditions so he can not only choose plans B, C or D when plan A is no longer available, he can also see the ripple effects of those choices in other areas.  This enables Howie to apply integrated thinking regarding Eagle roster composition, and in real time, frequently beat his competition in team building.