When to Overpay

 

Managing a football team is about allocation of resources, AND timing.  All teams can look at some of their current players and say ”Yes, we overspent to acquire him.”  The next sentence is the critical one.  Is it “Boy, am I glad we did” or is it “We need to avoid those kinds of mistakes moving forward?”

Currently, DK Metcalf is entering the final year of a rookie contract that will pay him 4M.  The 2019 2^nd rounder is 358-3170-29 (Catches-Yards-TDs) in 3 seasons on 358 targets (60% catch%).  Seattle, in rebuilding mode, will listen to offers.  “Sticker shock,” given recent critical free agent or post-trade wide receiver signings will have the Seattle brain trust consider an asking price for Metcalf (Otherwise, they’ll need to deal with the reality that Davante Adams and Tyrone Hill got near 30M/Year as 2 of a very short list of “best” NFL receivers, while Christian Kirk’s new 20M/Year contract is for a guy actually a tier below Metcalf).  It should also be noted that Seattle is only in year 2 of a 4-year 69M extension given to Tyler Lockett.  Finally, it is presumed Pete Carroll would like to rely more heavily on the run game in a post-Russell Wilson offense.  But Metcalf is likely the team’s best player, a young and talented 24 year old who would be a key core player for several seasons as the Cardinals rebuild toward contention.  What to do?  It does not hurt for Seattle to listen.

The guess (as reported by ESPN’s NFL Nation) is that Seattle, dealing from a position of strength, would start by requesting 2 first round picks (Many teams would be highly interested in Metcalf, aka the Browns, Chiefs, Eagles, Falcons, Jets, Packers and Saints, and several of those teams have 2 first rounders in the ’22 draft). 

Metcalf is a terrific young receiver, a top 10 NFL receiver.  While not (yet?) “top 5,” he is likely at the top of the next tier.  Unless “blown away” Seattle can wait till the trade deadline.  Amidst the clear clamoring from other teams in a desire to pry away a #1 receiver like Metcalf for themselves, should the Eagles consider a package approaching 2 first round picks to pair Metcalf with DeVonta Smith?

Eagles Lesson:  Unlike the Chiefs or Packers (also in need of Metcalf after losing Hill and Adams, respectively), the Eagles have only a “playoff competitive” roster, not a “Super Bowl contending roster.”  In listening to what Laurie and Roseman have previously said, 1: The Eagles will spend their resources in the trenches first.   2: Howie has indicated he wants to construct a team that would be a #1 conference seed.  

The Eagles are not yet good enough to be considered competing for a #1 seed.  Acquiring Metcalf means committing to a large, multi-year cap hit for him beginning in 2023.  That PLUS two 1^st round picks is simply too much resource on one player, unless he represented “a final piece.”  Knowing WHEN to overpay is critical.  The Eagles will, at some point, hopefully be in that position.  Currently, that is not the case.