New Orleans was no Big Easy

 

At the time of this writing, the shock and worry associated with Damar Hamlin’s on field cardiac event and collapse remains the center of the NFL world.  Compassion and positive hope should remain the forefront of all good people.  Fortunately, positive news has emanated from the University of Cincinnati Medical Center as Hamlin is communicative (talking to his family since his breathing tube was recently removed). While the world must go on, we can all take a few moments to reflect, and wish the best to Damar and his family, with the hope for his full healthy recovery.

Onto football…

Have the Eagles altered their opinion of their backup QB from Minshew-mania to Minshew-phobia:

• The pick 6 Minshew threw vs. the Saints was not AJ Browns fault, despite a % of Eagle fans attempting to pin the blame on AJ (running a "soft" route).  Quez Watkins was a big reason for the 2 Minshew interceptions the week before vs. Dallas.  But Minshew was responsible for releasing that ball to Brown into Saints coverage, despite fans blaming Brown for not muscling to the ball to break up the play.  If anything, I think Browns lackadaisical route was really an attempt to telegraph to Minshew to go elsewhere with the ball, since Brown knew the Saints, especially corner Marshawn Lattimore, were locked onto his pattern.
• Minshew is one of the NFL’s 32 best QB’s that’ll legitimately seek a starting role somewhere next year.  But his attempt to do so was not aided by the tape he placed out there vs the Saints.  That may have been his worst game as an NFL starting QB.  Maintaining a high standard is hard, there are ebbs and flows.  Unfortunately, in last week’s key game, Minshew underperformed.  But he should not be judged on 1 performance.  As an example, his 355 yards vs the Cowboys was at worst solid.  Had Quez Watkins not come up small on the QB’s intercepted balls, Minshew’s performance vs. Dallas could have been interception free and closer to, if not beyond 400 yards and 40+ Eagle points. 
• Minshew was horrible vs New Orleans, but this 1 game should not preclude the fact that ON MERIT he deserves to start somewhere next year.  He does not have the raw capabilities nor premium draft history of Carson Wentz or Zach Wilson.  But while those 2 QB’s names start with W, they inhibit W’s!  Despite his recent pair of losses, Minshew brings his own combination of talent, leadership and intangibles clearly superior to recent starters such as Marcus Mariota, Davis Mills and Taylor Heinicke, among others (including Wentz and Wilson as well).  The challenge is Minshew’s upside.  His downstream potential is inferior to that of Pittsburgh's Kenny Mills, but TODAY he is a better QB than Kenny Mills.  Yet organizations will, legitimately, invest starts in the Kenny Mills’s of the world in hopes of securing their upside, which is admittedly higher than Minshew’s.  Many teams will invest in tomorrow at the expense of today.  That’s fine… it just masks the fact that RIGHT NOW Gardner Minshew is 1 of the 32 best QB’s in the NFL.  That does NOT mean there are 32 WINNING starting QB’s.  It just distinguishes between the NFL’s 32 best vis-a-vis the upper echelon of those 32 (Mahomes, Burrough, Allen, can we say it- Hurts!).

Minshew is good, just not good enough.  He is a legitimate, GOOD NFL backup who had a bad game.

EJ Smith, writing for the Philly Inquirer, pointed out some key numbers regarding the difference between Gardner Minshew and Jalen Hurts to the 2022-2023 Eagles:

• Success Rate- The frequency with which an offense gains enough yardage to stay ahead of the sticks and therefore indicates how well a team can sustain drives: With Hurts 49.7% (NFL #1), Minshew 41.6% (18^th).
• Turnover Differential- With Hurts +12 (NFL #1), Minshew -3 (extrapolated would be bottom third of NFL).
• Estimated Points added per Play- With Hurts 0.10 (NFL #2) to Minshew -0.10 (20^th).

These numbers might actually help Jalen Hurts MVP candidacy!

A silver lining in the decision to play Jack Driscoll at Right Tackle was and is the expectation for a return of Lane Johnson in the playoffs.  Jack Driscoll had a bad game vs Cam Jordan (3 sacks!) and the Saints.  But the Eagles did NOT go with their best available OL personnel vs. New Orleans.  Driscoll is a good backup tackle, which is not quite as good as a below average starter. Andre Dillard, on the other hand, is likely an ABOVE average starting left tackle (Just so happens Jordan Mialata is even better).  The best Eagle OL right now (without Lane) starts Mialata at RT and Dillard at LT.  But NOT doing so leaves Mialata IN HIS COMFORT ZONE on the left side preparing for the playoffs, strongly suggesting Lane returns on the right side.  That’s the good thing, the silver lining.  The question will remain how good will Lane be (80%? 60%?) AND how long can he play dealing with that abdominal tear?  Because make no mistake, Andre Dillard is a starting NFL left tackle.  As much as I like Driscoll, he is, unlike Dillard, a backup tackle (although perhaps good enough to be a starting guard).

After the first series allowing the Saints to score on an (interminably) long first drive, the Eagles D yielded 6 points the rest of the way.  Kudos to them, with unexpected good games from Josiah Scott and K’von Wallace, and another expected monster day from the D line with 7 sacks. After the game Jordan Mialata said “Everyone knows this loss is on the offense.”  The Birds are the first team EVER in the NFL with 4 players totaling double digit sacks (Reddick, Graham, Hargrave, Sweat). As a team they have 68, tied for 3rd most in the NFL ever, an Eagle franchise record.  The NFL record of 72 by the ‘84 Bears is within reach, although that team did it in 16 games.  Still, what a performance by the D-Line!

Per Jimmy Kempski of the Voice, “Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton successfully attacked (LB Kyzir) White in the passing game the last couple of weeks. Cowboys and Saints tight ends (especially Saints TE Tayson Hill) were efficient in each of the Eagles' losses, as they combined for 11 catches on 14 targets for 154 yards. Those numbers would look even worse if not for a a dropped pass by a wide-open Juwan Johnson last Sunday.”  Kyzir White is not out there as a run stuffer.  The Eagles need him in coverage in the playoffs vs. good NFC TE’s.  If he can’t play, get Nakobe Dean in there!

Is there something wrong with the NFL playoff format when a 13-3 Eagles team will play their starters needing a win to guarantee the division and a #1 conference seed, while the 9-6-1 Giants will likely rest their starters because they’re locked into the #6 conference seed? Ludicrous!

During the 1st half of the season, cornerbacks Slay and Bradberry ranked #1 and #2 in coverage in the entire NFL!  This included having faced Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, CD Lamb and other legit competition.  Yet their play has tailed off some in the second half (9^th and 11^th).  Is this due to the natural ebb and flow of the game?  Jonathan Gannon's conservative play calling? The ability of teams to scout and prepare for the Eagle secondary's tendencies?  I say all 3 of these have contributed, but I think it is more the adjustments Slay and Bradberry have had to make as Josiah Scott and Reed Blankenship  replaced Avonte Maddox and CJ Gardner Johnson in the slot and at safety respectively.  The Eagles corners are still playing at a high level (9th and 11th ain't bad!) while compensating for inexperienced teammates. 

I lauded Howie Roseman and the Eagles personnel staff for the great job they have done, and continue to do, but they had a miss after the draft with undrafted rookie free agent Rashid Shaheed, who signed with the Saints.  This kid is as good (better?) down field threat than Quez Watkins (a 2020 6th rounder), and the speedster has been a terrific punt & kickoff return specialist too.  Howie pilfered the off-season trade of 1^st rounders with the Saints, but the Saints landed a diamond in the rough with Shaheed.

Chauncey Gardner Johnson had his practice window opened this week as he returns from his kidney laceration.  I do not expect he’ll play vs the Giants unless the Kidney is fully healed (Word behind the scenes is he may have had a dislocated a rib as well).  He is now getting his wind back after being dormant a month to successfully heal.  It’d be good to get him some snaps against NY to knock the rust off before the playoffs, but only if he is fully healed.

While the Eagles clearly would have preferred to lock up the division and #1 seed vs the Saints, there is a silver lining of playing starters in week 17…keeping sharp.  For healthy players, too much rest might have removed their edge.  Of course, given the choice you’d want that extra week (along with the guaranteed bye) via a win over New Orleans, but there is some perceived benefit to staying sharp and experiencing the vulnerability of losing a highly anticipated winnable (Saints) game.  Playoff edge.

This team’s core strength has been its O-Line, and as good as they can pass protect, the run game remains their “go to” superpower.  Not using the run game more frequently in the face of Minshew’s failure passing in last week’s 1st half was ludicrous!  There were clearly mitigating factors to favor the run too… 1- The Saints are better vs the pass than the run.  2- Give Jack Driscoll the simplicity to attack by run blocking, his strength. 3- Minshew started out horribly (2 sacks on first 2 plays, 4 sacks on first 8).  4- Create the threat of a run to effect play action for Minshew.  But no, Miles Sanders had 2 carries in the first half?!  Horrible!!!

Robert Quinn has been activated off IR for practice this week.  The former Bears DE was a big disappointment as a mid season acquisition for a 4^th round pick (what appears to be one of Howie's rare misses so far this year), but Quinn could make amends if re-invigorated after his injury recovery.  He had 16 sacks just last year (yet only 1 this season, that with the Bears).  A good game from Quinn vs. NY would help with the temporary void at DE given Josh Sweats injury (although what appears will thankfully be a rapid recovery).  Getting Quinn playing like he did in ’21 for a few playoff games would be a big win for what is already a dynamic team strength.

For the first 1/2 of the season, Milton Williams play was subpar.  But he has picked that up as the season turned the corner, especially after entering this pre-playoff stretch.  He is playing well and will be needed vs the Giants (since Josh Sweat will probably not be active).  More importantly, the Eagles will need to rely on him more inside next season, when we can expect Linval Joseph, Ndamukong Suh and Fletcher Cox will all likely be gone from the DT rotation.

Hoping the Cowboys lose to the Commanders so the Eagles can back into a division title regardless of their play vs. the Giants is a pipe dream.  Ron Rivera has generally been a good NFL coach for several years in a terrible situation in Washington.  But his admission he did not know the Commanders could be eliminated with a loss last week (they lost their game when Carson Wentz started and had his WORST statistical NFL performance, pretty amazing after what we saw in Philly in 2020) is a fire-able offense!  One thing… Rivera’s decision to start rookie Sam Howell this week over both Wentz and Heinicke is a good one, to see what the the draft pick Howell's got.

The Hamlin situation, with his health preeminent, has created secondary (NFL) questions regarding what happens next.  Here are some suggestions I’ve heard:

1. Cancel the remainder of the NFL season (?!)
2. Ignore the Bills/Bengals game, with both those teams finishing with 16 rather than 17 games.
3. Ignore the scheduled finales this weekend for all 32 NFL teams, allowing a completion of the Bills/Bengals game, with all teams finishing with 16 rather than 17 games (16 like in prior seasons… although this option creates an arbitrary bye week at seasons end for everyone but the Bills and Bengals, and clearly loses the NFL a lot of $, not a small owner consideration).
4. Declare the Bills/Bengals game a tie (Hands AFC North division title to Bengals but takes away their chance for the #1 conference seed, puts Bills at disadvantage for #1 conference seed they previously owned).
5. Steal a week from the 2-week Super Bowl window, inserting it before the completion of the regular season to play the missing game (various schedules have been suggested here within this option.  Note this choice introduces additional rest for playoff teams not named Bengals and Bills, putting Buffalo and Cincinnati at a playoff disadvantage).
6. Could have rescheduled the remainder of the game (now unlikely), having the Bills and Bengals condense 1.75 games over these 2 weeks before the wild card round (would have been difficult to do, more difficult by the day, and would have led to “competitive inequities” for those 2 clubs (since they would have headed to the playoffs having to squeeze in an extra 3/4 of football vis-a-vis the other 30 clubs, plus the travel involved depending on the site).

I believe it best to allow Bills and Bengals players to vote on their preference amongst the above options, or a reasonable alternate suggestion.  UPDATE- On Friday (1/6) NFL owners approved a resolution whereby "the AFC championship game will be played at a neutral site if the participating teams played an unequal number of games and both could have been the #1 overall AFC seed..." It appears the combination of this and #2 will suffice!

There are Ebbs and flows in the quality of NFL units during the course of a season.  Some remain good or bad the entire year.  Others may start out one way but play another by seasons end.  This is certainly the case with the New Orleans and Dallas Defenses, the 2 defenses the Eagles faced the last 2 weeks.  The Dallas defense had been very good most of the season, but thru a few injuries and the tiring of some key players has played fairly poorly the last month.  Meanwhile, the Saints have been the opposite, picking up their play, doing much better the last month or so (Their defense gave up > 24 points per game thru week 11, but in their last 5 games have yielded 13.5 points per game).  The Eagles encountered a very good New Orleans defense, who additionally returned perhaps their best player, corner Marshawn Lattimore, who had been out many weeks.  The Dallas defense had been overrated as their play declined… The New Orleans defense did not receive the credit they deserved as they rebounded this last month to play like the top 5 defense they were in '21.

We have been recently reminded that in 2007 the Giants played their starters even though they already had a playoff position locked.  Their final regular season 2007 opponent was a 15-0 Pats team, yet the Giants almost won by playing their starters, using it as their springboard into the playoffs (where they later of course beat the Pats in the Super Bowl).  Sorry, this isn’t the same thing this week for the G-men vs the Eagles.  It’s a different era, with sports science driving the consensus for relevant player rest…  Key Giants will make cameos only against the Eagles, expect lotsa backups.

The Eagles will have some interesting roster decisions to make this week, and headed into the playoffs.  3 players (Safety CJ Gardner Johnson, Defensive End Robert Quinn and Offensive lineman Brett Toth) were made eligible for practice.  As previously mentioned CJ Johnson and R Quinn are roster worthy for the playoffs, and potentially even for the game vs. the Giants.  Toth is also returning from a knee injury suffered the last week of the regular season last year vs. Dallas (when the Eagles played their backups and rested their starters prior to the wild-card round). He is a relatively young (26) backup who provides the flexibility to play Offensive Tackle (typically on the right side) or Center, but  it is unlikely Toth will be rostered for the playoffs given the Eagles depth on O-line and the roster challenges they now face.  Still, in addition to these 3 players (2 requiring roster spots), the Eagles will look to return slot corner Avonte Maddox at some point.  A decision will need to be made at punter, where Aaron Siposs will return from IR.  Brett Kern has punted by elevating him from the Practice Squad in Siposs' absence, but a decision will be required regarding who gets kept, Siposs or Kern (Kern has already received his 3 elevations, so must either be rostered on the 53 or not play).  With Lane Johnson, CJ Johnson, R Quinn, Avonte Maddox and a Punter likely requiring 5 of the 53-man roster spots currently occupied, the Eagles will need to do make some interesting cuts.  The cuts will be players who might get claimed by other teams before the Eagles can demote them to their practice squad (which they'd prefer to do).  Possibilities- Guard Josh Sills, RB Trey Sermon, DE Janarius Robinson, LB Kyron Johnson or LB Chris Ellis.  All have played a role on Special Teams, and all have increasing potential future roles on future Eagle teams.  Some tough decisions may be required, since any of these young players is likely to be scooped up by another NFL franchise.  UPDATE- The Eagles surprisingly cut Sua Opeta on Friday (1/6).  Opeta is a good backup considered the first Guard off the bench, but more recently Andre Dillard (Left Tackle) and Cam Jurgens (center) have shown the flexibility to play Guard as well.  Additionally, Lane Johnson's replacement at Right Tackle Jack Driscoll can play Guard.  This is also a key statement by Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland, who clearly really likes rookie free agent backup Tackle/Guard Josh Sills.  And now Brett Toth may have moved up the ladder a bit, becoming roster-able? Opeta is good enough to start on several NFL teams, so although the Eagles would like to move him to their practice squad, that is unlikely before he gets claimed elsewhere.  

Lessons Learned:  First, regarding “The Big Easy,” in the NFL NOTHING IS EASY!  Second, unless the Eagles can re-sign Gardner Minshew for an incredibly inexpensive cap friendly deal this off-season, Philly need's “a poor man’s Jalen Hurts” as a backup (Draft pick? Tyrod Taylor?).  This will minimize the impact to the other players on offense, allowing the team to run the same attack with their backup rather than alter the way they need to play for a more traditional QB.  Third, no one is safe on this Philly roster!  Sua Opeta is a good NFL Guard, but depth and improvement around him has made him expendable.