Flying vs. Big Blue- Good Enough

 

Jalen Hurts health was “Good Enough” for him to play.  The Eagles offense was “good enough” to score 6 times.  And the Eagles as a team played “good enough” to beat the Giants “Little Blue” team, who rested their star players because they were locked into the NFC’s 6^th playoff seed (So NY took advantage to protect their premier players).  All in all, the post-game Birds feeling was “good enough.”

The playoff teams and positioning were established last weekend.  AFC vs NFC playoff QBs- Big edge, AFC, with 5 of the current top 6 in the game: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrough, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence.  The names say it all.  Lawrence is young but has attached a terrific NFL season to his unparalleled pedigree.  While the final 2 AFC playoff teams may not start their #1 QBs, Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa are very good when healthy in their respective systems, certainly top 10 QBs this season in their own right.

In the NFC playoff picture things are a bit more down to earth.  Brady is THE all-time great and is still very dangerous, but at 45 is perhaps 75-80% of what he was at his peak.  Similarly, Cowboy Dak Prescott had a very pedestrian year.  Jalen Hurts has had a great 2022 but has been injured recently, so it remains to be seen if he can both fully recover AND shake off the rust to carry his MVP-level play into the playoffs.  Similarly, rookie Brock Purdy has been a 49er phenomenon, but the former Mr. Irrelevant still needs to prove he is not.  The same goes for Seattle’s Geno Smith, a career journeyman who had the first good year of his career for Seattle.  Kirk Cousins is a .500 QB who whithers in prime time, and Daniel Jones could only aspire to be as good (and well paid) as Cousins.

If Jalen Hurts is not recovered from his shoulder injury in 2 weeks, expect more play like yesterday… competency rather than excellence from the QB position.  Without his explosion (which means cessation of the zone read, & therefore his skill to pull the ball down on a run/pass/run option meaning Sanders run/Hurts-pass/Hurts-run option) in RPO’s, the Eagles go from a franchise record setting offense to merely a good one.  This will make winning in the playoffs possible, but much more challenging, as we saw vs. the NY Giant backups in week 18.

With a 10-game winning streak, the 49ers are playing the best football in the NFL.  Brock Purdy has been terrific but make no mistake this is about an excellent football team, both on offense and defense, around him.  They pose the most legitimate playoff threat to come into Lincoln Financial field and derail the Eagles Super Bowl aspirations, who still should be favored, especially at home.  If the 49ers get to Philly they may very well be favored, and if so no doubt the dog masks will come out!

NFL Coach of the Year should be very competitive this year!  In San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan has led a rookie 7th string QB to be the catalyst for a #2 playoff seed.  Pete Carroll and Doug Pederson have taken expected bottom dwellers in Seattle and Jacksonville to the playoffs, while Brian Daboll has been equally fantastic in New York for the Giants. Nick Sirianni has molded the additions of AJ Brown and several defensive stalwarts to take his Eagles to the best record in the NFC, while Andy Reid has kept his Chiefs motoring along even after the subtraction of super star wide receiver Tyreek Hill.  My vote would be for Sirianni, but it’s far from a slam dunk!  All these coaches warrant consideration.

Funny how expectations change!  Eagle fans are feeling OK (good enough) but unfulfilled with their 14-3 record, #1 seed and the only Home field advantage to the Supe (unlike the muddled AFC Home field situation).  The addition of AJ Brown has been nothing short of superlative, as he ended with an Eagles best ever 1496 yards receiving.  This enabled his 1A partner, Devonta Smith, to achieve a franchise record 95 catches.  Rich Gannon and his excellent defensive numbers (55 sacks when only rushing 4) including 70 (SEVENTY!) total sacks, are being poo poo’d (#2 in the NFL was the Chiefs, with 55 total sacks).  Jalen Hurts trepidation exists, but he was 14-1, (FOURTEEN and ONE!) as a starter this year.  The Eagles have 8 pro bowlers, plus 12 Pro Bowl alternates, plus Dallas Goedert & CJ Gardner-Johnson (Pro bowl shoulda beens except for criteria not allowing their Pro Bowl candidacy since they were on IR).  In Philly is a coaching staff, a QB and a roster primed for a championship run if healthy! 

Jordan Davis did not have as impactful a season as this author expected in the center of the Eagles D- line.  He started out fine, with a continually improving level of play, till he had a high ankle sprain mid-season.  Up to then, his role evolved to critical- The Eagles D gave up over 5 yards per carry in the run game when he was on the sideline, but held teams under 4 yards per carry when he was on the field.  He missed games after the sprain.  Howie quickly went out and got veteran Linval Joseph to fill that missing role in his absence, and Joseph has been terrific.  Since Davis’s return, the rookie has received only about 33% of the snaps in 5 man fronts, with Joseph having the rest.  Why?  Aside from the terrific play of Joseph, Davis high ankle sprain is not fully healed, and likely will not be till Spring.  Davis remains a critical component of not only current but future Eagle success on the interior of their defensive line. Look at the wear and tear on 2 similarly aged Eagle vets- Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox.  Cox is a good 2023 player, but Graham is a top notch NFL DE this year.  One reason for the difference is the spartan use Graham had the first few years of his career vs the extreme use Cox got.  This wear and tear showed up later in their careers.  Because of the presence of Linval Joseph, the Eagles have been able to play a dinged Jordan Davis as a reserve and not overplay him.  This author believes he will become a centerpiece of the Eagle defense as early as next year, if not in these playoffs. 

In their 3 prior Super Bowl appearances, the Eagles have ended the regular season “gasping,” before reloading for the playoffs… in 1980, they lost 3 of their last 4 before a playoff March that included a resounding defeat of the Cowboys in the NFC championship game.  In 2004 they lost their last 2 (after T.O.’s injury) but responded in the playoffs without T.O. till his miraculous return vs the Patriots in the Super Bowl (although they only lost by a FG).  In their 2017 championship season, there was talk of benching Nick Foles in favor of Nate Sudfeld do to Fole’s poor initial play, before Foles became a playoff & Super Bowl hero resulting in a statue now outside LFF.  So the pattern is not dissimilar to establish a 4th Super Bowl March!!

It is hard to understand Jalen’s reluctance to check down to his running backs.  This has been an issue all year.  Admittedly, Miles Sanders dropped one last Sunday, but Minshew had success throwing to Kenny Gainwell.  Jalen needs to consider this option more frequently, especially vs a blitzing defense like W Martindale’s Giants.

While the Eagles D played well vs. NY, like the offense they were just a bit off.  They dropped 3 interceptions (including a near miss pick 6 by Big Play Slay) and gave up 2 4th quarter TD's.  Did they “miss” Josh Sweat?  Robert Quinn played pretty well, but the Eagles might have broken the sack record with Sweat on the opposite side of Hassan Reddick last Sunday.

It is amazing what has happened with Field goal kicking in the NFL since the 1960’s.  Since 2000, the 50+ yard field goal has become what the 40+ yard field-goal was in the latter 20th century.  And that latter 20th century period saw similar evolution in distance kicking from where it had been in the 1950’s thru early 1970’s.  The 1974 change to move the goal posts from the goal line to the back of the end zone was supposed to make field goals tougher for kickers, but longer and more accurate kicking kept evolving.  Saying all this, kudos to Jake Elliot for nailing 5 FG’s vs the Giants, including 2 that were 52 and 54 yarders respectively!  Elliot was an unsung hero of the game, if not the Eagle MVP.  He was the deserving NFC Special Teams player of the week as a result.

A reverse mirror to all those Jake Elliot field goals was the fact they had to be attempted.  The Eagles failed multiple times in the red zone, where, aside from Elliot’s heroics, they had a single Boston Scott TD to show for their efforts.  Unless they clean this up, the NFL's most successful Red Zone offense this season will be making an early playoff exit.

The Eagles are picking 10th in the 2023 draft.  Good job by Howie (woulda been 7th if they had beat New Orleans 2 weeks ago, but gotta let that one go).  Reviewing preliminary mock drafts of the Eagles selection at 10 is nevertheless anything from interesting suggestions to a ROFLMAO exercise.  Here are 8 of these mock suggestions, from the most ridiculous first leading up to the most likely:

• Sports Illustrated (Rolling on the floor suggestion laughing my ass off suggestion): At SI they should know better than project running back Bijan Robinson to Philly at #10.  The Eagles will simply never select an RB in the 1st round under Roseman unless he has rare talent and upside in both the ground AND air game (See Christian McCaffrey).  Robinson is more the pure runner, and while likely the best runner in this draft, lacks the McCaffrey game-changing passing game impact.  As the NFL evolves, an RB by any team in the top 10 becomes less and less likely. 
• Pro Football Focus (laughable): These guys may know how to value players, but their selection of Alabama Safety Brian Branch is laughable because Howie Roseman will NEVER select a safety in the first round, let alone at #10.  And Branch is not a safety worthy of a top 10 pick.  He’s a good player more likely to fall to the Eagles own pick (currently likely to be #29-32).
• SB Nation (shaking my head): Their choice of 6”5” 305 lb Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee  is one where I just shake my head.  This kid has amazing physical attributes with elite power and agility for his size.  He plays with both leverage and lower body power to consistently hold up against double teams in the run game, yet also has outstanding lateral agility.  He’s strong, instinctive and smart.  But an ACL injury cut him short in college, and leaves him with questions as to whether he can regain his former explosion.  He’s a slam dunk for Howie in the top of round 2 if he trades back with his late 1^st rounder, but will not be a high 1^st round selection by Philly… too much risk.
• Bleeding Green Nation (chuckle): BGN is the Eagle blog that should know the Bird dope… This prediction registers a chuckle on the draft meter.  While Northwestern tackle Peter Skoronski fits in the draft range (8^th – 15^th, average 11^th), readiness (most pro ready OL in the draft) and Eagle priority parameters (in the trenches), his talent is a “Guard-first” player with admitted Pro Bowl upside there, but only backup NFL Tackle skills.  This high in the draft, the Eagles only OL selection would be a Pro Bowl level Offensive Tackle.  Guards get drafted later.   
• CBS (chuckle): Defensive End Miles Murphy brings a chuckle, since he’s likely too talented to drop below #6.  While this author believes the Eagles will retain Brandon Graham beyond this season (the triumvirate of he rotating with Sweat and Reddick off the Edge has proved superlative), Graham is 34 (near the end).  The 6’5” 275 pound Murphy makes terrific sense to help set the edge vs. the run, with excellent first step explosion to rush the passer.  Still, expecting the excellent Murphy to drop below pick 6 elicits an unlikely chuckle.
• Draft Wire as reported by USA today (legitimacy): Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr is a legitimate suggestion for the Eagles.  Darrius Slay is not getting younger, and the excellent but 30 year old James Bradberry is likely to seek a contract too expensive for Roseman to accommodate under the cap (with Slay scheduled to earn $17 million next year).  Porter is a physical (6-2”, 194) corner whose style of play is highly similar to a young Bradberry.  Reasons this suggestion is “legitimate” and not “good?”  The Eagles insistence on building from the inside out, i.e. on the Offensive and Defensive lines first,  and the fact Porter could actually be gone before #10.
• 33^rd Team (good suggestion): Georgia cornerback Keelee Ringo is a good selection for the Eagles.  See Joey Porter Jr. above regarding picking a potential future Eagle corner… Ringo may end a tiny tad lower on the overall talent scale, so he could be available at #10.  And at 6’2” and 205, he brings speed, talent and that winning Georgia pedigree.  With Darius Slay getting older & James Bradberry too expensive to retain, and both being 30plus, this is a good pick.
• Newsday (good suggestion): Texas Tech edge Tyree Wilson is the best projected Eagle 1^st round pick I’ve heard.  He appears a top 10 talent, often compared to last years 1^st pick in the draft Travon Walker for comparison.  At 6’6” and 275, he is a force at Defensive End who can also rush from the inside.  He brings athleticism, physical dominance and position versatility, but will need to use his “good” speed (very effective as an inside pass rusher) to get snaps on the outside.  At worst he can spell Reddick in run-downs and move inside on 3^rd and long.  An excellent replacement as Brandon Graham nears retirement.

The Eagles 2023 schedule is shaping up as a much more challenging than 2022  Here are their opponents (Away opponents CAPITALIZED, Home opponents in small letters, division opponents {both home and away} in italics, and 2022 season playoff opponents in bold: bills, dolphins, 49ers, vikings, cardinals, Cowboys x 2, Giants x 2, Commanders x 2, PATRIOTS, JETS, SEAHAWKS, RAMS, BUCCANEERS, CHIEFS.  Like the NFC East (3 playoff teams), playing all 4 AFC East teams is tough, that's a loaded division getting better.  Right now, this frankly looks like a brutal schedule.  The Eagles will be challenged to retain their excellent roster, and with a tougher schedule face an uphill 2023-2024 battle. 

On top of maintaining a top notch roster against a tougher schedule, Eagle coaches will be in demand this off season.  The Eagles have received interview requests for both their coordinators, Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen, as potential head coaching candidates for other clubs.  Likely replacements?  If promoting from within, the 2 most likely candidates for Offensive Coordinator would be QB coach Brian Johnson or passing game coordinator Kevin Patullo (Offensive Line coach Jeff Stoutland is happy in his current role).  A clear external OC candidate would be ex-Colts coach and former Sirianni boss Frank Reich.  Defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson (defensive passing game coordinator and DB coach) seems the most likely internal candidate to fill the role of Defensive Coordinator (although linebacker coach Nick Rallis is young and very highly regarded), while the creator of the Eagles current style of defense, Vic Fangio, is a clear external option.   If Steichen and/or Gannon leave, the departing Coordinators will want to fill coordinator positions on their new staffs, and what better candidates then Eagles position coaches?  So Sirianni will need to be prepared for potential significant coaching change after the playoffs.