The Eagles played 3 opponents since my last entry late last month. A good win versus the Steelers (35-13) on October 30 was an AJ Brown beat down (3 TDs). The only statistical blemish was yielding 144 yards on the ground in 24 carries (6.4 ypc), but given the score, this was acceptable damage. What was NOT acceptable damage was an injury to outstanding rookie Jordan Davis, as subsequent games would attest.
A subsequent Thursday night (Amazon) prime time competition versus the 1-5-1 Houston Texans was a WwW (Win with Warts). The Eagles won 29-17 but did not take the lead till the 3rd quarter. Rookie Damion Pierce gashed the Birds for 139 yards on 27 carries (over 5.1 YPC), and a run D minus their best run defender (Jordan Davis) looked quite vulnerable to one of the NFL’s worst teams. Dallas Goedert was the offensive star (8-100-1). The effort got the Eagles to 8-0 approaching the midpoint, but it was an “ugly win” for a 7-0 football team matched up against a 1-5-1 club.
The Eagles had a “mini-buy” after the Thur night Houston win. The next opponent was to be the Washington Commanders and their replacement for injured Carson Wentz, QB Taylor Heinicke. Overall, Heinicke was PFF’s single-lowest graded quarterback among 38 qualified signal-callers due in a large part to his league-high 8.2% turnover-worthy play rate. It wasn’t expected things would get much better on the Monday night game against an Eagles pass defense that had been the class of the NFL this season:
- EPA allowed per pass play: -0.198 (No. 1)
- Yards allowed per pass attempt: 5.5 (No. 2)
- Passer rating allowed: 71.8 (No. 1)
- Explosive pass-play rate allowed: 10.2% (No. 2)
- Pass touchdown rate allowed: 3.4% (No. 9)
Reviewing this semi-mid-point at that time, the Jalen Hurts MVP hype was palpable, and fun. There were some interesting considerations, some good, some not so good…
Another MVP candidate, Josh Allen,
had already committed an NFL-high 17 turnover-worthy play. His 4.8%
turnover-worthy play rate trailed only Taylor Heinicke (8.2%), Zach Wilson
(5.6%), Jameis Winston (5.1%), Justin Fields (4.9%) and Mac Jones (4.8%) — not
exactly great company for Allen to be associated with.
There were only 2 remaining undefeated QBs- Jalen & Tua (the Dolphins have
still not lost a game Tua has started). Only 8 offenses had thrown a catchable
deep ball (20-plus yards downfield) on more than 50% of their 2022 pass
attempts: Dolphins (68%), Bengals (62%), Texans (62%), Vikings (61%), Seahawks
(59%), Colts (56%),
Patriots (54%), Buccaneers (51%). It was
surprising to NOT see Hurts and the Eagles in this group.
7 quarterbacks were
on pace to rack up triple-digit 2022 rush attempts: Jalen Hurts (187), Justin
Fields (172), Lamar Jackson (162), Daniel Jones (136), Josh Allen (132), Marcus
Mariota (113) and Kyler Murray (111).
Jackson holds the single-season record at the position with 176 carries, so
this seems destined to fall by the way side.
The true running QB has replac ed the merely mobile QB as true NFL avant
garde.
The top-five (worst) in
yards per attempt when under pressure versus when kept clean this season among
all quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs: Zach Wilson (-6.04 yards per
attempt when pressured vs. when kept clean), Jimmy Garoppolo (-3.96), Mac Jones
(-2.99), Jalen Hurts (-2.97), Taylor Heinicke (-2.91). Vis-à-vis other NFL starting QB’s, Jalen
still needs a clean pocket to perform optimally.
MOST EFFICIENT
QUARTERBACKS TO EVERY DEPTH OF THE FIELD-
Behind the line of scrimmage: Ryan Tannehill (7.8 yards per attempt)
1-9 yards downfield: Jimmy Garoppolo (8.5)
10-19 yards downfield: Jalen Hurts (12.8)
20+ yards downfield: Tua Tagovailoa (20.3)
Standard Numbers made Jalen look
good…
QB Completed/Passes Comp% Yards(YPA) TD-INT Pass Rating
Jalen Hurts 163/239 (68.2%)
2042 (8.5) 12-2
107.8
P Mahomes 219/331 (66.2%)
2605 (7.9) 21-6 103.6
Josh Allen 191/298 (64.1%)
2403 (8.1) 19-8 99.2
Moving on, the Eagles defense had been
playing well statistically-
The #Eagles had
allowed 17-or-fewer defensive points in 7 consecutive games till the Houston
game, marking the longest active streak in the #NFL. It was the team’s longest
streak since 2001
The #Eagles defense
had held opponents to less than 250 passing yards and an 85.0 passer rating in
each of the first 8 games of the season. The last time Philadelphia's
defense accomplished that feat was in 1985 under Marion Campbell.
The Eagles D ranked
1st in the #NFL in opponent passer rating (68.0) & and takeaways (18), Tied
for 2nd in passes defensed (45), 3rd in passing yards allowed per game (177.6)
& pts allowed/gm (16.9), 4th in opponent completion percentage (58.4%), 5th
in the #NFL in sacks per pass attempt (8.9%) and Tied for 6th in sacks (26.0).
Opposing offenses were averaging only 2:44 in T.O.P. per drive, which from the
Eagles' defense's perspective was 8th best in the NFL. The unit was also tied
for the lead league with 6 strip sacks this season.
So before the Commander game, my feeling was we may not love the way Jonathan
Gannon does everything, but the defense was limiting points and making plays.
Oh yeah, and winning games.
Then came the Commander game. Washington out-coached, out-played and out-efforted the Eagles, winning the turnover battle (3-2, plus an additional Eagle turnover on the final play attempting to lateral their way to an unlikely score). Washington ran the ball 49 times. While a Wash 3.1YPC and a longest run of 11 yards tells a favorable Eagle story, the Commanders repeated ability to set up 3rd and short by gaining 7-9 yards on 1st and 2nd downs meant a mere 1-2 yards was the repeated easy 3rd down goal, and Washington repeatedly (10 of the first 12 times) got that 1st down. With little to spare, but they got it. The ball control kept the Eagle offense off the field, and while the Eagles had 2 early scores, they subsequently had ineffective offensive series enabling Washington to win the 2nd quarter 13-0, so halftime was a 20-14 Commander advantage. Perhaps the most egregious coaching decision was only 2 RB carries (one by Sanders and one by Boston Scott) in the first half.
The Eagles were similarly ineffective offensively in the 3rd quarter, and the game was decided on 2 unfortunate 4th quarter plays… First, a strip fumble from Dallas Goedert where a flagrant face mask went uncalled, then another fumble by Quez Watkins after a 50+ yard completion. Washington was the better team, and perhaps the most upsetting thing was the defenses inability to control Washington’s ground game.
With their best run defender, Jordan Davis, on IR for at least 2 more games, and for one of his replacements, 2nd year DT Marlon Tuipulotu also having to go on IR this week, Howie Roseman responded by getting the 2 best Defensive Tackles on the market. 2 time pro-bowler Linval Joseph (34) who will play the Nose Tackle spot vacated by Jordan Davis and Tuipulotu, was signed, and then quickly former Pro Bowler Ndamukong Su was acquired to help the DT rotation. These two players are expected to provide toughness and better interior play, adding to a rotation of Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave and Milton Williams. Collectively, the 5 should provide both the pass rush and run-D required in the interior of the Defense.
While this talent may help optimize the Defensive Scheme- I have to confess this Vic Fangio scheme is not for Philly (or me). I hate the scheme. It may be successful (the Eagles are, after all, 8-1 with a top 5 defense) but it is frequently neither entertaining nor fun. Predicated upon 2 key facts- Explosive plays win games, turnovers win games, the Fangio defense is designed to encourage dink/dunk and short yardage runs by the opposition to elicit lengthy (in # plays) attempted scoring drives, where a turnover, penalty or general failure is more likely. This is “hide and seek” football as opposed to Buddy-ball “attack” football. I don’t like it. I am NOT entertained by lengthy drives by the opposition as we await (and hope for) a single exciting mistake (which frequently does not happen). Jon Gannon is not playing to the strengths of the secondary. Against Washington, for example, he played cover-4, a zone coverage that allowed Terry McLaurin to repeatedly break free by finding open spots in the zone, rather than using the strengths of his corners (Bradberry and Slay) to track players more by man coverage.
The Commander game was a bad game by the offense too. The Eagles have too much talent on offense to “only” achieve top 3 NFL status! A starting line of Mialata-Dickerson-Kelce-Seumalo-Johnson has 2 possible Hall-Of-Famers, 2 possible Pro Bowlers and a significantly above average 5th lineman in Seumalo. The Eagles have 2 starting wide receivers that are both “number ones,” with AJ Brown a clear top ten NFL wide receiver, and with former Heisman winner Devonta Smith not far behind. Dallas Goedert has cemented his rep as a top 3 NFL Tight End. Miles Sanders is ranked top 5-10 in many critical rushing categories this season, having his best year. And Jalen Hurts is receiving justified MVP consideration this year. With all that talent, and solid backups on the bench, are Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen doing enough with this group? For example, versus the Commanders their over-emphasis on the pass (running backs had 2, count ‘em two carries in the first half) was outrageous, even against a strong Washington D-Line.
As the season marches on, the
Eagles had been prematurely crowned NFC favorites to get to the Super Bowl and
face “real” competition amongst an AFC rep… amongst the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals
and Dolphins? Well, the NFC has more
than just bumps in the road. It appears Rodgers
has taken himself and Green Bay out, and Brady and the Bucs are on the brink of
fading too with an unproductive offense.
But Dallas (NFL’s best D and a returning Zach and Zeke), Minnesota (with
an offense that just rolled over the Bills), and the 49ers (with skill players
that can confound a frequently poor tackling Eagle D) represent a triumvirate
capable of giving the Eagles fits!
In addition to anticipating the Eagles take care of business this weekend versus Indianapolis, who to root for amongst Dallas (6-3) vs. Minnesota (8-1)? In the Division rivalry vs. the one seed bye, I’ll actually hope Dallas can knock off Minnesota this weekend. Although Minnesota’s defense is not that good, and although we contained their attack well in an early season MNF domination, I do not want to see the Eagles have to travel to Bloomington for a playoff game in January.
Eagle Lesson: It’s not about going undefeated. It’s about finding your biggest flaw (run
defense) and making the correction (former pro bowlers Linval Joseph and
Ndamukong Su). Trust Howie’s solution,
that these big boys are the beef that can help patch a discernible weakness
that will manifest in NFC, and subsequently NFL supremacy.
Comments
Post a Comment