Roster Thoughts: Eagles Wide Receivers

 

Howie Roseman appears to have had a tremendous off season.  My trust in Howie has never waivered,  Any criticism I might have later (since no one is perfect) will need to be tempered by the fact that currently I don’t have much criticism of Howie’s moves beyond this: Deferring payment of many players across multiple future years allows Mr. Roseman to “buy now” and “pay later.”  This must be managed responsibly, since, eventually, “the rent comes due.” Howie’s approach assumes an NFL ever escalating salary cap over time.  In general, I would take a more conservative fiscal approach (pay more in the present, borrow against the future less), but, for now, Mr. Roseman’s strategy appears “smarter,” and as an Eagle fan, I get rewarded!

The following is a pre-training camp view of Eagle roster thoughts for the wide receivers.  “The Ugly” here would consistently be “Player has a significant injury effecting performance, availability or both.”  Also, projections can be extreme (Example, who could have predicted Carson Wentz would be as bad as he was in 2020).  I am trying to take realistic forecasts.

 

A.J. Brown: Bad- Brown experiences frustration in either “getting in sync” with Jalen (He is used to the passing style of Ryan Tannehill), and/or his target distribution (Jalen will have other options).  I do not think this is likely.  Initially, Brown will need to adjust to a new qb and a new offense, though, after 3 years in Tennessee. 

Good- Brown, who just turned 25, continues his excellent progression as he enters his prime: 70+/1000+/7+

 

Devonta Smith: Bad- Sophomore slump?  Unlikely, but it happens for receivers.  Also, AJ Brown is a good friend of Jaylen’s, and Jaylen began to use TE Goedert as a security blanket late last year.  So other receiving options are available, including Watkins and Pascal in the slot, and safety valve slings to the RB’s.  Devonta could experience the frustration of “too many options” for Philly in the passing game.  But I do not think either of these issues is likely.

Good: Devonta continues his progression from an Eagle record setting rookie season… 70+/1000+/7+

 

Note- In evaluating the backup wide receivers, we need to consider their playing time.  Smith took 82% of the offensive snaps last year.  Brown has averaged 73% in his 3 years with Tennessee.  Let’s assume both take about 80% of the snaps next year, a fair estimate. 

Note 2- Think of the snaps as a pie.  Smith and Brown each get 80%.  If the Eagles never ran a 0, 1 or 3 wideout set (just 2 wideouts every play), they’d still require a replacement wide receiver for 40% of the time!

Note 3- The Eagles had almost no plays with 0 wideouts, and only 8% of their snaps with only 1 wideout (3^rd in the NFL), so if Devonta and AJ share a seat equally during those 1 WR occasions, that covers 4% (each) of the time they’re each on the bench.  This leaves 32% (rather than 40%) of the remaining snaps where 1 or the other will sit, replaced on that play by someone else (about 1/3 of the total snaps!).   

Note 4- The Eagles ran 3 wide receiver sets about 2/3 of the time.  Adding that to the 1/3 from “Note 3,” and one can estimate a “backup” (#3, #4, #5, #6) wide receiver will be on the field for an average of 100% of the snap count (some plays none of those guys’ll be on the field, but other times 2 or even 3 of them). 

Note Final- So we can assume a wideout NOT named Brown or Smith will be on the field most of the time.

Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal as wide receivers 3 and 4:

• Watkins and Pascal were #2 wide receivers last year (Quez in Philly, Zach in Indy).  This year, they are 3a and 3b on the depth chart, sharing the slot.  Their reduced time and snaps will almost certainly lead to reduced production.  Last year, they combined (Watkins in Philly, Pascal in Indy) for 81-1031-4.  It is unlikely that combined production holds up given their reduced roles.
• Quez Watkins has good talent as a deep threat.  But Zach Pascal will play too, since he is a good receiver for the run game (blocking), and has more talent with shorter patterns out of the slot, and in the red zone.  If they split snaps, each will see 50% of the snaps this year, as opposed to Quez’s 69% last year and  Zach ‘s 84%.  The dramatic snap reductions will almost certainly reduce their productivity.
• If the Eagles are a successful team at establishing leads as the games enter the 4^th quarter, Watkins will see reduced snaps to Pascal, the better blocker and “safer” receiver.  Pascal likes to get physical, will mix it up with defenders at the line of scrimmage, and has solid hands on short yardage plays.
• If Shane Stiechen does decide to more heavily emphasize the vertical game in ‘22, look out… Quez will see more snaps to Zach Pascal’s detriment. 
• Watkins biggest value is as a deep threat.  If Hurts can improve his deep throw consistency, Watkins will be the beneficiary.  If not, Quez’s numbers and snaps will suffer to the benefit of Pascal.
• There was an old theory that wide receivers required till their third NFL season to mature, adapt to the league and become comfortable in an offense.  Quez’s and Zach’s teammate Jalen Reagor is entering his 3^rd year.  If Reagor and the (currently 5^th wr) first round pick surprises (it all comes together for him), Quez and Zach will see reduced time. 
• Whether the Eagles carry 6 wide receivers (adding Greg Ward or someone else who can play Special Teams), or park Ward on the practice squad to occasionally appear on the active roster based upon injuries, Ward will be another variable to consider regarding a reduction in snap counts for Quez & Zach.
• Since 1970, five Eagle receivers taken after the 5^th round have had 40+ catches for 600+ yards: John Spagnola, Harold Carmichael, Harold Jackson, Gary Ballman and now Quez Watkins.  Over 3 yrs, Pascal averaged 41-540-4.  That’s pretty good experience and production to apply to your 3a and 3b receivers!
• Given their reduced role, I think it is realistic to assume Quez and Zach can combine for about 2/3 of their total last year, forecasting 53-685-3 combined.

Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward as wide receivers 5 and 6- Saying Reagor has not been good his first 2 seasons is being kind.  Although lacking a premier passer in Hurts as he has ramped up, Reagor had a hard time getting open, dropped balls, and showed a clear lack of confidence.  He has not flashed the mercurial skills anticipated from a top 25 pick.  Ward, meanwhile, has been a chess piece at the end of the roster for Philly for some time.  He has been clutch.  He is a smart player.  He is versatile (special teamer).  We are talking about wide receivers 5 and 6 on this roster.  Ward can probably bounce from the 53 to the practice squad, back and forth, based on need (both at receiver and Special Teams).  If Reagor “finds himself” in this, his 3^rd year, he could supplant the 2-headed partnership of Watkins and Pascal in the slot suggested above.  But, barring injury or that unlikely “3^rd year” maturation, Raegor, along with Ward, will find themselves fighting to be an active player on the 53 weekly. 

 

Dark horses: Listed in order of potential 2022 or 2023 impact:

• Britain Covey: An undrafted over-age rookie FA from Utah, he is an etemely quick, smallish but athletic receiver with very good Punt Return skills (29-427-2 last year at Utah).  This guy’s work ethic and intangibles are off the chart.  If he can perform as a Punt Returner, he could earn a roster spot. 
• Devon Allen: The 27 year old rookie professional hurdler certainly has speed, and can certainly jump.  He left the college game in 2016 and turned professional hurdler.  He’ll likely need a year of acclimation as a practice squad candidate, so I’d circle 2023 as the most likely time he could provide impact. 
• Deon Cain: A top target at Clemson, he was drafted by the Colts in the 6^th round of the 2018 draft.  After a torn ACL had him lose 2018, he saw 7 games and 3 starts in 2019, but was stolen off the Colts practice squad by the Steelers for the final 6 games.  Since, he has bounced from practice squad to practice squad (Steelers, Ravens, Eagles).  He is likely practice squad depth for Philly. 
• John Hightower: Active for only 1 game last year, the 3^rd year receiver has an uphill climb for relevancy on this Eagles squad.  After 9 catches for 166 yards in his first 7 games in part time play, he has fallen off the map for other options in Philly.  It is put up or shut up time for Hightower. 
• Josh Hammond: Recently waived by the Jags, he signed there as a Rookie FA in 2020 with the majority of time on their practice squad.  He is 6’0, 194 and ran a 4.53.  He dropped only 4 of 127 college targets.  Hammond appears, at this point, a camp body for backup QB’s Minshew and Carson Strong.

Eagle Lesson:  With 2 moves, a blockbuster (the trade for AJ Brown) and an under the radar FA signing (of Zach Pascal), the Eagles turned a team weakness to a team strength.  They are now considered a top 5 NFL receiving corp.