Skip to main content

Why not Davonte Parker?

 

When Tyreke Hill was traded by the Chiefs to the Dolphins last week, it made sense to immediately look at the Dolphins roster to see what receiver might be displaced (and therefore become a possibility in the Eagles wide receiver room).  Davonte Parker… Hmmm.  Yes, I thought, Parker still complements Hill and incumbent 2nd year phenom Jaylen Waddle.  Waddle and Hill are more in the smaller/explosive category.  But thankfully the Dolphins also recently acquired youthful ex Cowboy Cedrick Wilson to serve in that role.  So yes, the Dolphins just might shop a 29 year old Davante Parker representing only 11.4M in cap space over 2 years with his (just shy of) 50 catches/700 yards/3 TD’s per year NFL average.  Yesterday, the Patriots traded a 3rd round (2023) pick for Davonte Parker and a 5th round (2022) pick.  What does this move represent?

  • The Dolphins are not impressed with Parker’s capabilities moving forward, so are trading him to a division rival.  They have less depth, but the injury prone Parker (missed 20 games over 7 seasons) was likely going to become the 4th wideout on this team, one who could notn contribute to Special Teams.   
  • Miami does not seem to value 2022 picks (They are down to 4, the first of which is a compensatory pick acquired from the 49ers in round 3… No. 102).  They traded their first rounder to the Eagles to move up for Waddle last year, and the 29th pick acquired from the 49ers last year to the Chiefs to get Hill.  In this trade, they are swapping a 5th rounder this year for a 3rd rounder next year (They now have two 1’s and two 3’s next year).  This is strange, since the ’22 class is deep given added players due to the pandemic.  Miami will be going for it with QB Tua Tagovailoa this year, where they’ll likely be populating even the back end of their roster with veterans in spot that otherwise would have been occupied by rookies.  GM Chris Grier is then positioned with a wealth of ’23 draft assets to chase down Tua’s successor if required.
  • Belichick now has 3 OK-good wideouts (Parker, Up & down ex-Eagle Nelson Agholor, improving Jakobi Meyers), and is hoping one (or more) can take it to the next level.  All of a sudden, Parker is a relatively cheap asset as the cost of receivers is skyrocketing.  The Pats value this deep draft more than the 2023 incarnation, so were willing to swap a 2023 3rd for a 2022 5th as part of the deal.  The key to the deal will be whether Parker can stay healthy... This has always been his, pun intended, Achilles’ heel.

We already know that the Eagles were purportedly interested in high profile receivers Calvin Ridley (Falcon out of football this year for gambling), Robert Woods (Ram returning from injury traded to the Titans for a 6th round pick) and Allen Robinson (Ram/Former Bear recently signed by LA to a 3 year, 31M contract).  One would expect that the Eagles considered adding Parker to their roster.  Word is Woods and Robinson did not prefer Philly as a destination given the greater number of targets, and therefore opportunity for success they anticipate in Tennessee and LA respectively (LA supposedly obliged Woods’ preferred landing spot in the trade).  So how interested were the Eagles in Parker once his availability became clear?

Parker’s 57 contested catches since 2019 are the most in the NFL.  He is 29 and has a financially manageable 11.4M over 2 years remaining on his contract.  His receiving style (big possession guy) marries well with Devonta Smith and Quez Watkins.  While Parker is 3 years removed from his best season (2019- 72 catches, 1202 yards and 9  TD’s), his performance last year (40-515-2) was in only 10 games (significant snaps in only 8), and the Eagles recently acquired a presumably capable 4th wideout in Zach Pascal as insurance.  Had the Eagles even come close to New England’s offer, one might assume Miami GM Grier would have preferred to deal with Philly, outside his division. 

The Eagles have a good rapport with Miami, pulling the trigger on the 1st round swap last year.  It does not seem likely the finances were an issue (reportedly 11.4M over 2 years)?  So, if the 3rd / 5th swap did it, why not submit a competitive offer (a 4th and a 7th?), especially given the prior interest reported in Ridley, Woods and Robinson?

  • Age: They may have been put off by Parkers age (he will pass 30 during the 2 year contract).  Like running backs, receivers have a strong tendency to decline beginning with their age 30 season.
  • Injury Prone: Parker has a brittle injury history, having only played all games in a year once (2019).  He took significant snaps in 8 of 17 ’22 games.  Nothing’s more a roster boat anchor than lack of availability.
  • Declining: Parkers numbers IN HIS PRIME, starting at his age 26 season in 2019 (Year: catches/yds/TDs) 2019: 72/1202/9   2020: 63/793/4   2021: 40/515/2   This is pretty clearly a descending player. 
  • History: Perhaps Eagle experience created other warning signs for Howie Roseman?  Desean Jackson was acquired a 2nd time in Philly, but was an injury bust.  Golden Tate was a receiver trade acquisition by Philly (from Detroit) in 2018 for a 3rd round pick that did not work out. 
  • Pascal: Many would laugh comparing Parker to Eagle Zach Pascal, saying Pascal is clearly inferior. But here are last year’s numbers-    Parker (#2 wr in Miami): 40/515/2     Pascal (#3 wr in Indy): 38/384/3  
  • Cost: Having a veteran wideout (in addition to Pascal) on the roster might be preferred, but the benefit of multiple cost-controlled resources for 4-5 years at the receiver position would be ideal, especially given the Birds ($) emphasis in the trenches.  Parker’s cost of 12M over 2 years is consumable and would work.  But adding a talented rookie would allow 4-5 years of better cost-controlled dollars at an expensive position.  If the Eagles can do that in this year’s draft, it will be key for managing the cap.
  • Is that 2023 3rd round pick (given Miami GM Grier’s predilection for 2023 picks) that valuable an Eagles commodity?  Perhaps… In case the ’22 Jalen Hurts experiment does not work out, Howie may be amping up and retaining post ’22 draft assets as his QB “plan B.”   

Eagles Lessons: In the end, Parker’s age, injury history and trends as a player (He’s been a declining talent since 2019) likely made the Eagles decide to maintain their current plan…  This author projects that to be keeping the current core of wide receivers while adding cost controlled YOUNG talent in the draft (vis-à-vis adding Parker).

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

When to Overpay

  Managing a football team is about allocation of resources, AND timing.   All teams can look at some of their current players and say ” Yes, we overspent to acquire him. ”   The next sentence is the critical one.   Is it “ Boy, am I glad we did ” or is it “ We need to avoid those kinds of mistakes moving forward? ” Currently, DK Metcalf is entering the final year of a rookie contract that will pay him 4M.   The 2019 2 nd rounder is 358-3170-29 (Catches-Yards-TDs) in 3 seasons on 358 targets (60% catch%).   Seattle, in rebuilding mode, will listen to offers.   “Sticker shock,” given recent critical free agent or post-trade wide receiver signings will have the Seattle brain trust consider an asking price for Metcalf (Otherwise, they’ll need to deal with the reality that Davante Adams and Tyrone Hill got near 30M/Year as 2 of a very short list of “best” NFL receivers, while Christian Kirk’s new 20M/Year contract is for a guy actually a tier below Metc...

Derek Stingley Jr.

  First round draft prospect Derek Stingley Jr. is a paradox.   The LSU cornerback had an incredible freshman season, a clear top of the 1 st round talent even that young.   But since… not so much.   A combination of injuries and COVID have forced his stock down in this year’s NFL draft. Injuries have limited him to 10 games over 2 seasons since the 15 he played his freshman year.   And based upon past performance, opposing offenses have shied away from attacking him, thus yielding less tape to evaluate: The Good (from his freshman tape): He had speed, quickness and recovery speed. He had great coverage technique in breaking with opposing receivers. He brought physicality and proper hand use in coverage. He was a playmaker… He had 6 interceptions. He was an All America cornerback in both 2019 and 2020 He’s the 2 nd highest ranked corner in this draft.   A good performance in his pro day on 4/6 could vault him to #1. The Bad: While he c...

Eagles win 2023 Draft!

  Going into this 2023 draft / RFA (Rookie Free Agency) period, this author felt the greatest needs were, ironically, the Eagles areas of greatest strength… Offensive and Defensive Lines.   Why?   In addition to the loss via 2023 Veteran Free Agency of two Pro Bowlers (Javon Hargrave at DT and Isaac Seumalo at Right Guard), simple… age.   When managing a salary cap, ya can’t keep everybody), DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham and C Jason Kelce are likely entering their final seasons in 2023, and RT Lane Johnson appears to have just 2-3 seasons left.    These players have been extraordinary franchise cornerstones: Kelce- future HOF, Johnson can solidify that same stature over his few remaining seasons, Cox has legitimate arguments for the Hall of Fame, starting with being a member of the all-decade team of 2010-2019.   Graham, while not a Hall-Of-Famer, certainly belongs in the “Hall of Very Good” as a franchise icon including owning perhaps the great...