When Tyreke Hill was traded by the
Chiefs to the Dolphins last week, it made sense to immediately look at the
Dolphins roster to see what receiver might be displaced (and therefore become a
possibility in the Eagles wide receiver room).
Davonte Parker… Hmmm. Yes, I
thought, Parker still complements Hill and incumbent 2nd year phenom
Jaylen Waddle. Waddle and Hill are more
in the smaller/explosive category. But
thankfully the Dolphins also recently acquired youthful ex Cowboy Cedrick
Wilson to serve in that role. So yes, the
Dolphins just might shop a 29 year old Davante Parker representing only 11.4M
in cap space over 2 years with his (just shy of) 50 catches/700 yards/3 TD’s
per year NFL average. Yesterday, the
Patriots traded a 3rd round (2023) pick for Davonte Parker and a 5th
round (2022) pick. What does this move
represent?
- The Dolphins are not impressed with Parker’s capabilities moving forward, so are trading him to a division rival. They have less depth, but the injury prone Parker (missed 20 games over 7 seasons) was likely going to become the 4th wideout on this team, one who could notn contribute to Special Teams.
- Miami does not seem to value 2022 picks (They are down to 4, the first of which is a compensatory pick acquired from the 49ers in round 3… No. 102). They traded their first rounder to the Eagles to move up for Waddle last year, and the 29th pick acquired from the 49ers last year to the Chiefs to get Hill. In this trade, they are swapping a 5th rounder this year for a 3rd rounder next year (They now have two 1’s and two 3’s next year). This is strange, since the ’22 class is deep given added players due to the pandemic. Miami will be going for it with QB Tua Tagovailoa this year, where they’ll likely be populating even the back end of their roster with veterans in spot that otherwise would have been occupied by rookies. GM Chris Grier is then positioned with a wealth of ’23 draft assets to chase down Tua’s successor if required.
- Belichick now has 3 OK-good wideouts (Parker, Up & down ex-Eagle Nelson Agholor, improving Jakobi Meyers), and is hoping one (or more) can take it to the next level. All of a sudden, Parker is a relatively cheap asset as the cost of receivers is skyrocketing. The Pats value this deep draft more than the 2023 incarnation, so were willing to swap a 2023 3rd for a 2022 5th as part of the deal. The key to the deal will be whether Parker can stay healthy... This has always been his, pun intended, Achilles’ heel.
We already know that the Eagles were purportedly interested
in high profile receivers Calvin Ridley (Falcon out of football this year for
gambling), Robert Woods (Ram returning from injury traded to the Titans for a 6th
round pick) and Allen Robinson (Ram/Former Bear recently signed by LA to a 3
year, 31M contract). One would expect
that the Eagles considered adding Parker to their roster. Word is Woods and Robinson did not prefer
Philly as a destination given the greater number of targets, and therefore
opportunity for success they anticipate in Tennessee and LA respectively (LA
supposedly obliged Woods’ preferred landing spot in the trade). So how interested were the Eagles in Parker
once his availability became clear?
Parker’s 57 contested catches since 2019 are the most in the
NFL. He is 29 and has a financially manageable
11.4M over 2 years remaining on his contract.
His receiving style (big possession guy) marries well with Devonta Smith
and Quez Watkins. While Parker is 3
years removed from his best season (2019- 72 catches, 1202 yards and 9 TD’s), his performance last year (40-515-2)
was in only 10 games (significant snaps in only 8), and the Eagles recently
acquired a presumably capable 4th wideout in Zach Pascal as
insurance. Had the Eagles even come
close to New England’s offer, one might assume Miami GM Grier would have
preferred to deal with Philly, outside his division.
The Eagles have a good rapport
with Miami, pulling the trigger on the 1st round swap last
year. It does not seem likely the
finances were an issue (reportedly 11.4M over 2 years)? So, if the 3rd / 5th
swap did it, why not submit a competitive offer (a 4th and a 7th?),
especially given the prior interest reported in Ridley, Woods and Robinson?
- Age: They may have been put off by Parkers age (he will pass 30 during the 2 year contract). Like running backs, receivers have a strong tendency to decline beginning with their age 30 season.
- Injury Prone: Parker has a brittle injury history, having only played all games in a year once (2019). He took significant snaps in 8 of 17 ’22 games. Nothing’s more a roster boat anchor than lack of availability.
- Declining: Parkers numbers IN HIS PRIME, starting at his age 26 season in 2019 (Year: catches/yds/TDs) 2019: 72/1202/9 2020: 63/793/4 2021: 40/515/2 This is pretty clearly a descending player.
- History: Perhaps Eagle experience created other warning signs for Howie Roseman? Desean Jackson was acquired a 2nd time in Philly, but was an injury bust. Golden Tate was a receiver trade acquisition by Philly (from Detroit) in 2018 for a 3rd round pick that did not work out.
- Pascal: Many would laugh comparing Parker to Eagle Zach Pascal, saying Pascal is clearly inferior. But here are last year’s numbers- Parker (#2 wr in Miami): 40/515/2 Pascal (#3 wr in Indy): 38/384/3
- Cost: Having a veteran wideout (in addition to Pascal) on the roster might be preferred, but the benefit of multiple cost-controlled resources for 4-5 years at the receiver position would be ideal, especially given the Birds ($) emphasis in the trenches. Parker’s cost of 12M over 2 years is consumable and would work. But adding a talented rookie would allow 4-5 years of better cost-controlled dollars at an expensive position. If the Eagles can do that in this year’s draft, it will be key for managing the cap.
- Is that 2023 3rd round pick (given Miami GM Grier’s predilection for 2023 picks) that valuable an Eagles commodity? Perhaps… In case the ’22 Jalen Hurts experiment does not work out, Howie may be amping up and retaining post ’22 draft assets as his QB “plan B.”
Eagles Lessons: In the end, Parker’s age,
injury history and trends as a player (He’s been a declining talent since 2019)
likely made the Eagles decide to maintain their current plan… This author projects that to be keeping the
current core of wide receivers while adding cost controlled YOUNG talent in the
draft (vis-à-vis adding Parker).
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