Saints Eagles Trade Blockbuster

 

Mid-Late afternoon yesterday, over 3 weeks before the NFL trade, a blockbuster draft trade transpired between the Eagles and Saints:

               Eagles give up                                  Eagles Acquire

               ’22 1^st Round (#16)                         ’23 1^st Round (TBD)

               ’22 1^st Round (#19)                         ’22 1^st Round (#18)

                                                                        ’24 2nd Round (TBD)

                                                                        ’22 3^rd Round (#101)

               ’22 6^th Round (#194)                      ’22 7^th Round (#237)

The Good:

• Hedge: Eagle fans want Jalen Hurts to be successful.  But before this trade, most Eagle fans would have preferred 2 firsts this year and 2 firsts next year to the 3 they had this year and 1 next year.  2 next year now positions them to be competitive for a change in QB after this season if Jalen is not the answer. 
• 2022 vs. 2023 draft strengths: 2022 is considered a talent deep draft with good players going all the way thru round 3 (Top 100).  However, the 12 or so best players in this (’22) draft are not as highly rated as other “top 12” groups, especially the 2023 draft.  High picks next year figure to be more valuable, prticularly QB’s (Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio States CJ Stroud, Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke, etc.).  Having multiple picks next year enhances the ability to move up.
• Asset count: Looking over a 3-year (’22- ’24) window, the Eagles have more premium draft assets, going from five 1’s, three 2’s and three 3’s to five 1’s, four 2’s and four 3’s. 
• Optionality: Increased assets means additional flexibility.  Howie can use those picks as expected (hedge for a future QB), or trade one or more of them as reallocation in this draft, or for current players.
• Win the Trade: The Eagles are the current acknowledged “winners” of the trade, having acquired a “2” & a “3” to shift a first rounder back 1 year.  (Of course, hind site will prove 20/20!)  Examples of this “win” :
• Joe Banner (Ex Eagle/Brown exec)- “1 of the most lopsided trades we have seen in a long time.”
• Jimmy Kempski (Eagles Writer PhillyVoice.com) - “Holy sh!t, that's highway robbery by Howie.”
• Tommy Lawlor (Writer PhiladelphiaEagles.com, blogger ScoutsNotebook.com, Igglesblitz.com) - “… Howie did it… Wow.”
• Matt Miller (ESPN NFL Draft Analyst)- “The Eagles now have the capital to tackle a prospect like Bryce Young (Alabama) or CJ Stroud (Ohio State) next year — if Hurts struggles.”
• Beat the trend: Assessments have indicated many teams are interested in doing what Howie just did, trading 2022 assets beyond 2022 for future value (Per SI’s Albert Breer, “[Howie Roseman] accomplished what many other teams are hoping to [do], ahead of the draft.).  The competition to do just this created a market difficult to accomplish this feat.  Howie locked in that success before the draft. 
• Balance present and future: The Eagles still have 10 picks in ’22.  While their value is somewhat lessened (reducing a 1^st to a 3^rd and reducing a 6^th to a 7^th), the quantity remains the same in ’22, and certainly significant future value is the result by adding a future 1^st and a future 2^nd. 
• 2026 Cap Space: Having 3 first round picks all come due in 2026 would have compressed into a cap issue when they’d be available for free agency (2026).  If they did hit on 3 picks, they would have faced either losing one in 2026, or very challenging future cap management.  Problem solved.

The Bad:

• Immediate Gratification: For those interested in seeing the Eagles maximize their draft capital in ’22, that is not happening.  If you sneer at “patience is a virtue,” “saving for tomorrow,” and general thrift, vs. “being all in” and spending now, you’re unhappy...  For those that think the Eagles should be in a “the time is now” mode, this deal is not the preferred approach.
• Present vs. Future value: The analysis may not be as favorable as reported for the Eagles when looking at a traditional NFL practice of reducing future value for present value (The analogy here is the old saying “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”).  Per Stephen Dranoff of ‘The 33^rd team,’ “It’s worth noting that NFL teams usually discount the value of future picks” (frequently by 1 round per year).  In this scenario, the Saints could be perceived as winners since their acquired picks are all ’22 picks, and the Saints future picks sent to the Eagles are therefore not as valuable NOW.
• 5 teams with two 2023 1^st round picks: In addition to Philadelphia, now with the Saints 2023 1^st rounder, Detroit (Rams), Miami (49ers), Seattle (Broncos) and Houston (Browns) also have two first round picks next year.  While a case can be made the Saints pick could be the best of those acquired, there is no certainty of that.  Similarly, a case can be made that, of those 5 teams, the Eagles will finish as the best, giving them the “worst” 1^st rounder (although Dolphin fans might rightfully disagree).  It’ll be about the combined value of a future package that will net a team attempting to move up in ’23 with the best chance.  Note that of the 5 teams, only Houston also has an extra 2024 first rounder from the Browns.
• Past Saint Success: New Orleans success in this ’22 draft would devalue future picks presuming they translate draft success into wins.  The Saints have, among their seven picks, 16, 19, 49 and 98.  5 years ago, they took similarly good draft assets and turned it into a historic draft for them (Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk, Marcus Williams, Alvin Kamara, Trey Hendrickson, Alex Anzalone).

The Ugly:

• Future Asset Quality: There is risk the ‘23/’24 picks will be devalued if the Saints have future success.   The Saints were (like the Eagles) 9-8 in 2022, and were thus positioned with the 18^th pick in the draft.  The Saints ‘22/’23 success/failure will determine the exact position of those future picks they dealt… Will they be in about the same place (around 18).  Devalued by Saint success (twenties or worse)?  Or will the Saints collapse, giving the Eagles their top 10 draft positioning?
• Saints ascending or descending? Evaluating the ’22-’23 Saints is challenging.  Subtract head coach Sean Payton (adding Dennis Allen), factor in a returning (from ACL surgery) QB Jameis Winston now backed up by Andy Dalton, subtract retiring safety Malcolm Jenkins replaced by incoming Marcus Maye, consider the loss of Pro Bowlers OT Terron Armstead and safety Marcus Williams… The analysis of whether they field a better or worse coached team, with better or worse personnel, remains an open to question.  Clearly the Saints are betting on themselves, moving an additional first round pick into this draft at the cost of a present 3^rd rounder, but future 1^st and 2^nd rounders. 

Eagles Lesson:  The Eagles needed to defer a 1^st rounder to next year as a “Hurts Hedge.”  Howie did it ahead of an anticipated frenzy to “trade back” in the ’22 draft.  He accomplished his primary goal and, even if the Saints fail to collapse, is positioned to mortgage future assets for a future QB, if that becomes necessary.