Draft Day plus 1: A look back and a look ahead

 

As is so often the case, Howie Roseman excited the fans with an action packed round 1 in the draft.  A month ago, the Eagles had picks 15, 16 and 19 in the first round.  They did not pick in any of those slots yesterday!

There was, of course, the deal with the New Orleans Saints a few weeks ago, sending pick 16 off for future draft capital and moving pick 19 up one slot to #18.  This move is hyper-critical to next years (2023) draft, and was useful in yesterday’s continuation of “Monty Hall” Roseman’s version of “Let’s make a Deal!”

After a run on defensive players at the top of the draft, the receivers began to go… wideouts Drake London, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were gone before pick #12.  Trader Howie gave up a 4^th round pick and two fifth round picks to move up from #15 to #13, as most of a tiny number of players (2?) the Eagles wanted at 15 were disappearing.  Getting to 13 was a pivotal spot where Howie believed one of a few key (Eagles) desired players would remain.  The 4 for 1 trade (pick 15, and the 4^th and two 5^th rounders for pick 13) was high in pick quantity,  but clearly provided insurance the Eagles desired at pick 13 over pick 15, insurance they deemed worthy of losing that significant post 3^rd round draft capital. 

The Detroit Lions swooped in, where from the viewers perspective it seemed the Lions trade from late in the first round to #12 appeared simultaneous with the Eagles moving up from 15 to 13.  At #12, the Lions claimed coveted wide receiver Jameson Williams, referred to as the most explosive player in the draft since Tyreke Hill.  With #13, the Eagles grabbed massive Defensive Tackle Jordan Davis.  Getting Davis was a top goal in my mind as a Birds fan.  I was ecstatic.

I viewed a top-notch rookie wide out as the priority 1b to that 1a.  I nervously waited to see if Treylon Burkes would fall to Philly at 18.  He did!  Would the Eagles pick him?  As the pick was to be announced, I saw a trade had been made.  Sure, I thought, Howie moved back, reacquiring some of the 4^th/5^th round draft capital he had forfeited to move up for Jordan Davis.  But no… Low and behold, Howie had swapped out for NFL star wide receiver Jaylen Brown, a player a year ago PFF (Pro Football Focus) had rated the 6^th best wide receiver in the NFL!  I was torn.  While I new AJ was a quality receiver, there were serious salary cap ramifications to paying a wideout with the extension Brown signed as part of the pre-requisite Howie had for making this investment.    

Let’s review the 2 acquired players briefly, then return to the draft.

 1- Jordan Davis- The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly:

The Good:

• Davis is a massive, run stuffing terror in the middle of the D-Line that can occupy 2 and sometimes even 3 blockers.
• The kid is a true “Unicorn” with no true NFL comparable.  Vita Vea of the Bucs is referenced, but Davis’s athletic skills far supersede Vea’s.  NOBODY this big and strong has ever come into the league with athletic skills, aka speed and explosion, like Davis.
• Davis is 22.5 years old, so is not an “old” rookie like his line mate at Georgia Devonta Wyatt (2 years older). 
• Jordan is the current Chuck Bednarik award winner as the best defensive college football player.
• Davis was a leader for a National Champion Defense at Georgia.
• The kid appears to have a great personality and great character.  He was a popular player at Georgia.
• He is under a rookie contract that will represent a cost controlled Eagle player for 4-5 years.
• The DT fills a need for the Eagles since both Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave enter the final year of their respective deals.
• Davis will be in the deepest Defensive Tackle rotation in the NFL, having an opportunity to learn from and play with Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, and sophomores Milton Williams and Marlon Tuipuloto.

The Bad…

• Davis only played about 27 snaps a game at Georgia.  While he will be part of a deep rotation, over time it will be expected he play a bigger role as it is unlikely both Hargrave and Cox will continue to wear Eagle green in 2023.
• Davis will look to Hargrave and Cox for leadership.  Cox, specifically, was unhappy for large portions of last season with Gannon’s scheme, and the handwriting is on the wall for COX to leave after this season.  Hopefully, the relationship between Cox and Davis will be a positive one that will not negatively influence Davis and his attitude about Gannon and the defense. 
• Davis has an acknowledged weight problem that reduces his ability to excel when he exceeds his playing weight of 341.  This was documented in last seasons post-season, college level performance as he started the college playoffs 20+ pounds overweight.  This will be a critical concern the Eagles will need to address with an assigned dietician, chef and appropriate “culinary support” to help Davis be the best he can be.

 The Ugly… The Eagles spent 4 draft picks on Davis.  The fans will not let him forget that.  High expectations are there and will never recede.  Davis is not only capable of fulfilling those expectations, but exceeding them.  Hopefully, his personality and commitment will be there.  He’ll need help from (hopefully non-jealous) teammates to succeed, from the coaching staff to design a defense and train him up to become elite in multiple ways, and from an Eagle support system to stay ahead of any weight issue.   Without that combination, Can Davis recede down a hole like the one Jalen Reagor currently occupies?

I believe everything is there to suggest Davis has the maturity and support to become an NFL superstar.

2- AJ Brown- The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly:

The Good:

• AJ was recently rated the 6^th best receiver in the NFL (by PFF).  He is clearly an incredibly talented player.
• Brown, at 24, is a young 3-year veteran, with both youth and experience on his side.
• Brown is a great complement to Devonta Smith, enabling both men to help each other shine.  While they share key skills like great hands and explosive quickness, Devonta is smaller, incredibly smooth and an exquisite route runner, while Brown is a 220+ pound physical, strong receiver that has superlative “Deebo-like” RAC skills.
• In playing at Tennessee, Brown is accustomed to playing for a run-heavy offense.  While the Eagles clearly want to improve on a 2021 25^th best in the NFL pass offense, they won’t want to abandon their powerful running game.  Brown could be the straw that helps stir the Eagle offense to a more balanced 2022 attack, and he is accustomed to playing on a team that likes to run the football.
• Brown helps complete the Eagle offensive talent.  With the addition of Brown, it can be argued the Eagles have no starter that grades out at less than a “B-“ at any position.  No excuses should be made when looking at what Jalen Hurts should be capable of doing given the players around him as he’s evaluated in 2022. 
• Jalen Hurts is a good friend of AJ Brown’s.  This move is about making both these players comfortable so they can be in the best position to succeed. 
• Having a player like AJ Brown on the team will help attract other veteran players to Philly.  And Brown’s desire to play in Philadelphia says good things about the city, the team and the quarterback.

 

The Bad…

• The Eagles are a running team that will now need to accommodate 3 stars (Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert) with sufficient targets.  Nothing hurts morale more than a player not receiving what he perceives as adequate opportunity to showcase his skills so he can maximize his chance for his next contract.
• One key cost to get Brown was a 1^st round pick and a 3^rd round pick.  Brown will be continually compared to Treylon Burkes, a player the Eagles might have taken alongside Jordan Davis had this trade not occurred.
• AJ Brown is on the last year of his rookie deal.  There are many positives associated with this acquisition, but a distinct negative is Brown’s impact on the salary cap.  The “cost” for Brown was not only first and third round picks.  It was also the 100 million dollar extension he received.  This impacts the salary cap in terms of acquirable players.  There have been rumors about the Eagles acquiring Tyron Mathieu.  Can that still happen with Brown’s addition and salary extension?

The Ugly…

• The explosion of big receiver $ for several NFL teams creates a difficult balancing act for the teams assuming that cap management responsibility.  If the best result occurs, mutual success for Jalen Hurts and his receivers and tight end, how can the cap be managed to pay all those players… Hurts is entering the 3^rd year of a manageable rookie contract, but that will not last much longer. 
• Jealousy is a funny thing.  Davonta, a Heisman winner, was clearly receiver #1 in the Eagle pecking order.  Brown comes in as a perceived top dog.  Hopefully, both players, along with Tight End Goedert, can translate this to a friendly competition that benefits the team.  If not… The Ugly is coming.

Let’s get back to the draft.  I marvel at the magnificent job Howie Roseman does in draft movement scenarios.  Howie maintains an overall strategy (building a winning team with appropriate resources and allocation of those resources) but recognizes there are multiple ways to skin that cat (the tactics).  Let’s look at what happened yesterday with different glasses.  Howie likely has a tactical tree of options that would make our heads spin, with a plethora of “if this, then that” directions: 

If Detroit does not move up in the draft to the twelfth pick, perhaps the Eagles actually planned to take wide receiver Jameson Williams at #13.  Then the Vikings at pick 12 and the Ravens at pick 14 would likely have taken safety Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Davis around the Eagles theoretical pick of the rookie receiver Williams at pik 13.  Edge Jermaine Johnson would have remained on the board for the Eagles at 18 (He was eventually taken by the Jets at pick 26 yesterday). 

So I suspect Howie’s plan A, had the Lions not shot up the draft board, might have been the Eagles walking away from round 1 with edge Jermaine Johnson at 18, the rookie wide receiver Williams at 13, & with the cap space “spent” on AJ Brown available to acquire the Honey Badger Tyron Mathieu at safety, currently a Free agent.  This would have allowed more flexibility for picks 2 & 3 to NOT need to focus nearly as much on safety, and the Eagles would still have the late third round pick (#101) they gave up for AJ Brown.

Would you rather have

Plan 1: Jordan Davis / AJ Brown,
OR
Plan 2: Edge Jermaine Johnson, wideout Jameson Williams, saftey Tyron Matthieu and an additional 3^rd?

All conjecture, but this is a picture I believe Howie may have had?  And which was plan “A” vs. plan “B”? 

Before signing off, I’d like to briefly look at Day 2 of the draft for the Eagles.  They are now down to 2 picks, #51 and #83.  They lost pick 101 in the trade for AJ Brown (And they lost 3 of their 5 Day 3 picks in moving up from 15 to 13 to get Jordan Davis).  I think the Eagles will look to address 2 of several needs today, a defensive end and a defensive back.  Here are potential targets in my order of preference by position:

DB: Kyler Gordon (cb), Roger McCreary (cb), Jalen Pitre (safety), Marcus Jones (cb), Bryan Cook (Safety), Martin Emerson (cb)  or Cam Taylor-Britt (cb/safety).  I am not enamored with Jaquan Brisker, but reluctantly admit he’s another likely target. 

Edge: David Ojabo, Boye Mafe, Arnold Ebiketie, DeMarvin Leal, Drake Jackson, Sam Williams, Dominique Robinson, DeAngelo Malone, Cameron Thomas, Josh Paschal, Nik Bonitto.

Wildcards: Breece Hall (rb), Cam Jurgens (center), Trey Mcbride (tight end), Greg Dulcich (Tight End), Jeremy Ruckert (Tight End)

I really think the team needs to think about Edge/DB, but depending on who falls to 51 and 83 respectively, f some of the “wild cards” I mentioned at running back, tight end or the center is available, they need to be considered based on “BP.” (Best Player Available).  Let’s see what happens!