Draft Day minus 1: Get the Unicorn

 

So what will the Eagles do tomorrow, in the first round of the NFL Draft?  Armed with picks 15 and 18 in this first round after the trade a few weeks ago with the Saints, we will have a chance to see trader Howie at work.

No QB in this draft has a first-round grade.  Anticipate some QB’s being taken in round 1 because some teams will still be desperate to acquire a (2^nd round valued) QB in round 1.  I expect the over/under will be 3 QB’s… Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett and likely either Desmond Ridder or Matt Corrall will be selected in round 1, but they are unlikely to be chosen till the 2^nd half of this first round.  It's too bad for the Birds, because you’d like those QB’s to get chosen early in round 1 to push better position players down to the team in Green.  Perhaps Detroit (at #2) or Atlanta (at #8) will panic for a QB, but this is doubtful.  If I am wrong about this, though, I will rejoice, since it will better situate the Eagles at both 15 and 18! 

The Eagle front office recognizes the recent explosion in wide receiver costs.  This off season, 8 veteran wide receivers got enormous contracts.  To mitigate, the selection of the best remaining wideout with their 18^th pick is something I anticipate so they can protect the salary cap by locking in youthful, quality receivers on 5 year rookie contracts.  There are several terrific wide receivers expected to go in the middle segment of this draft (picks 11-20).  The names are Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams.  This author feels all but the first name would be Eagles fits, with the last name being the most coveted player (Williams), who might be available to the Eagles because he is returning from an ACL injury (full recovery anticipated).  But any of these receivers would join Devanta Smith, Quez Watkins and Dallas Goedert to form a formidable group.  Expect Roseman to wait and at pick 18, if enough desirable wideouts remain he might consider a trade back a few slots to acquire additional draft capital, while still getting one of these wideouts.

For their first (#15) pick, the Eagles will favor a Defensive Lineman, and this is a rich draft in edge rushers, deep starting at the very top of round 1.  The Eagles have a big need for an edge rusher.  They like to rotate their players here, requiring at least 4.  The #1 edge rusher for the Birds is newly acquired Haason Reddick, frankly a steal in Free Agency.  Although undersized, Reddick has regular violent and satisfying meetings with the opposing QB.  Josh Sweat is a reliable #2 option who snuck into the Pro Bowl last year.  The hope is Brandon Graham can return and slide back into the rotation as a #3 option, but he is 34 and recovering from an Achilles injury.  Derrick Barnett was re-signed as the likely #4 option… He sets the edge quite well against the run, but the former first round pick only had 2 sacks last year, and the Eagles are hoping for a bounce back year from him in a reduced role.  Still, given Sweat’s injury history (although he was healthy last year), Graham’s age/injury, and the unknown that is Derrick Barnett, there is a high priority for the Eagles to select a quality edge rusher in this draft.

Conversations have been ongoing regarding the plethora of edge rushers available in the draft and where they will land. Expect the top 3 edge rushers (Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux) to be gone in the first 7 picks, with a 4^th (Jermain Johnson) going before the 15^th selection.  The order of Johnson and Thibodeaux could swap, but all 4 will likely be off the board  before the Eagles pick.  While the 5^th player (George Karlaftis) has promise, he is not the sure-fire stud his predecessors represent in the draft.  He is first round worthy, but likely later in the round, not at #15. 

QB’s like Tom Brady have emphasized repeatedly that while edge pressure is a major issue to deal with, a collapsing pocket from the middle is worse… much more intimidating.  Still, the run early in this draft will be a combination of “edge rushers” and offensive tackles (a position of value to protect the QB).

It is sometimes difficult to get in Roseman’s mind.  The league in general values edge rushers (defensive ends) over defensive tackles, a bit strange given Brady’s, and other QB's fear of a collapsing pocket center.  The Eagles have an excellent rotation of Defensive Tackles this coming season of a declining but still above average Fletcher Cox, a Pro Bowl level Javon Hargrave in a contract year, and sophomore Milton Williams coming off an effective rookie year, with improvement expected.  But Williams is the only 1 of those 3 players under contract beyond this coming season.  So the Eagles need a D-Tackle as well as an edge to protect the future.

There is only 1 Defensive Tackle in the draft worthy of a top 10-15 pick, and that is the behemoth Jordan Davis from Georgia.  Davis (6’6”, 341) has had some criticism driving his draft grade out of the top 8 players, primarily in 2 areas… He only played 50% or so of Georgia’s defensive snaps, and his sack production was low.  But this was because Georgia is so deep with NFL caliber talent they wanted Davis playing maxed out on each play, so reduced his snaps to conserve his energy, thus playing him primarily against the run, which he stopped dead in its tracks regardless of the opponent.

Davis blew up the NFL combine this year.  At 6’6”, 341 he ran a 4.78 forty yard dash, the second best ever for a player over 300 pounds (Again, Davis is 341).  His short shuttle was eye popping.  In fact, when accounting for size and scoring, DAVIS HAD THE SECOND BEST ATHLETIC SCORE (which takes into account size with performance) IN NFL COMBINE HISTORY (second to old Detroit Hall of Fame Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson).  This author believes Davis SHOULD be the guy pursued closer to the top of the draft, but Davis will not be picked before #9, and more likely in the 13-15 range. 

Davis Won the Chuck Bednarik Award and Outland Trophy in 2021 as a 1st-Team All-American on a championship-winning team.  Per 33^rd team, “he is a leader from a championship program who wins in the Box with his size, brute strength, length, and width.”  The fact of the matter is, per those who study the tape, Davis’s combination of size and athleticism is downright frightening.  NFL scout Ben Fennell on Davis: “He has no peer stuffing the run, but people need to recalibrate their mind set on who Jordan Davis is… Yes, he’s a massive early down run stuffing mountain.  But he can get after the passer.  He can get up the field.  He has range.  He’s a unicorn.  He’s a freak show.  He’s a game wrecker.”  Roseman recognizes this.

Would the Eagles rather have the 4^th or 5^th best edge rusher in this class, or a player, like the Rams Aaron Donald, who can collapse the pocket from the center?  Howie likes to zig where others zag.  Howie will likely address edge rusher on day 2, where some high quality players will slip (more on that when reporting on draft day 2).  On the draft’s 1^st day, expect a trade up regarding pick 15.  Howie must find a way to turn pick 15 into Jordan Davis, this drafts “unicorn.”