Draft Day 3: A Look back and a look ahead

 

Perhaps “shock” is too strong a word, but the Eagles zagged to my recommended zigs yesterday.  While I suggested using their two 2^nd day picks to address their needs at defensive end (edge) on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield, the Eagles went in 2 differing directions.

With their day 2 pick, the Eagles selected Center Cam Jurgens at #51.  This was a surprise:  Not because Jurgens is not a good player, but because it appears unlikely he’ll play much in 2022 unless injury deems that a necessity. 

The Eagles apparently involved their likely future Hall of Fame Center, Jason Kelce, in their search for his successor, since Kelce has indicated he is close to retirement.  The Eagles were fortunate to get Kelce back this season, and it may very well be his last, although in 2021 he played at the highest level (All-Pro).  Per Kelce:

This is my favorite player in the draft. I’m not just saying that because we picked him. The Eagles have been using me to, like, evaluate some of the centers that have been coming out. And of all the guys that I’ve looked at for the past two, three years … out of all the guys compared the most to myself, this guy is him. He is so athletic, so fast. You see him out in space. He runs, he’s a natural athlete. You see the fluidity… This guy is a freak athletically. He has the best chance to be a difference-maker at the center position. I like this kid a lot, I really do.”

Ourlads Guide on the NFL draft rated Jurgens their 2^nd ranked Center in this draft…

“When it comes to speed and overall athleticism, H=Jurgens stands out… He can burst post-snap in any direction and make solid contact with targets in-line and in-space.  He will need time to enhance his anchor-strength and grip… Elite burst off the line and speed to space… Has a fast twitch lower half that can swallow up a lot of space in a hurry.  Natural athleticism that is a weapon as a lead blocker in space.  Can pull from his starting position and easily reach the edge in time.  Solid initial contact, bending his target back and making an explosive impact. “

Per Brian Johannes at SB Nation in his Cornhusker scouting report for the draft, “Look for Jurgens to go somewhere on Day 2 and if he continues to develop he has the potential to be a Pro Bowl center.”

Done!  It’ll take Jurgens about a year of apprenticeship at this position in the NFL.  Few players come in ready to go.  What better mentor would Jurgens have?  Howie will be criticized for the pick since Jurgens will unlikely play much in year 1, but the apprenticeship is required to pass the baton from Kelce.  And imagine the noise Howie would get if a plan were NOT in play for someone to assume the mantle from Kelce?  This is a justified expense, clearly in line with the Eagle strategy to continue to build “from the inside out,” emphasizing their offensive and defensive lines. 

With their third round pick the Eagles selected falling linebacker Nakobe Dean.  Dean had been an anticipated first rounder, but dropped to 83 where the Eagles gladly scooped him up alongside his teammate Jordan Davis from round 1.  The reasons for the drop were possible injury concerns, but Howie indicated Dean will be fine and will be at the teams scheduled activities next week.  This is a steal for the Birds and continues their run… They have added 4 players during this draft that are winners, and each has good likelihood of playing in future pro-bowls!

Regarding day 3, it is unlikely either of their 2 picks will supersede the talent on their roster at defensive back.  Of course, Tyron Mathieu remains a tantalizing, although expensive, free agent option at safety to play alongside Darius Slay.  Their current in-house options at corner are below, and it appears the Eagles are satisfied with them.  Or perhaps a trade will be announced dealing one or more veterans (Andre Dillard?  Jaelen Raegor?) to then add either veteran or rookie help (via 1 or more additional 3^rd day picks).  Regardless, the corner options are:

• Kary Vincent Jr. (5-10, 189): Drafted in the 7^th round in ‘21 by Denver. Traded to the Eagles for their ‘22 6th rounder last November.  Vincent Jr. is FAST… He was part of the SEC Championship 4×100 meter relay team and ran an eye opening 4.33 40-yard dash at LSU’s 2021 Pro Day.  A developmental player, he was rostered by Denver but had not gotten a defensive snap.  In 3 seasons at LSU, he appeared in 39 games (19 starts) with 87 tackles, 1 sack, 6 picks and 16 pass break-ups.  He was part of the ’19 LSU National Championship team.  Vincent got 29 defensive snaps in the Birds meaningless week 18 game vs. Dallas last year, so was part of the overmatched defensive group playing against Dak Prescott & the other Dallas Cowboy starters (Dak went 21-27 for 295 yds and 5 TD’s). 
• Tay Gowan (6-1, 186): Drafted in the 6th round in ‘21 by Arizona. He had been a top 8 rated corner by PFF in last years NFL draft.  Per Howie Roseman, the Eagles had been “high” on Gowan in last year’s draft… “He was somebody that we would have considered with our 6^th round pick... He went right before we picked, and he’s a long corner. He’s got tremendous speed.”  Subsequently, he was traded to the Eagles as part of the package for Zach Ertz last October.  He was viewed by the Cardinals as a developmental player, but the Cardinals moved him to acquire Ertz. The Eagles maintained that "developmental" perspective..  He has good speed (4.44 40).  He fits defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s cover 2 scheme with that speed and his physicality.  Like Vincent Jr., Gowan got 28 defensive snaps in the Birds meaningless week 18 game vs. the Cowboys.  
• Mac McCain III (6-0, 175): Undrafted Rookie Free Agent in ’21, he was claimed from Denver by the Eagles last September, and immediately made his Eagle NFL debut as a special teamer covering punt returns.  A testament to hard work and dedication, he’s a 3-time All-Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference selection who, in college, showed an ability to read the QB and break on the ball (8 picks, 3 returned for TD’s, & 30 pass deflections).  Another victim in the Eagles week 18 struggle vs. the Cowboys, McCain got 11 of the defensive snaps that day.
• Josiah Scott (5-9, 185): Drafted in the 6^th round in ‘20 by Jacksonville, he was traded to the Eagles last May for Jameson Houston and a ‘23 6^th round pick.  Forced prematurely into the lineup due to injuries, he played in 6 games as a Jaguar rookie nickel corner (80 snaps), then was beaten out by 7^th round Jag rookie Chris Claybrooks (Scott gave up an opposing passer rating of 112.5).   But it was argued Scott was not a good scheme fit under perceived incompetent head coach Urban Meyer.  Entering the league, Scott was well-regarded for his technique and fundamentals, with good speed (4.42 40) and experience playing outside (he was used inside by Jacksonville).  He was also noted positively for his aggressive play, since his downside is his relatively diminutive size.  In college at Michigan State he routinely made plays that looked a whole lot “bigger” than expected from a 5’9” corner (In the past, defensive coordinator Gannon has shown a liking to blitzing his corners from time to time).
• Zech McPhearson (5-11, 191): was drafted in the 4^th round in 2021 by the Eagles in last years April NFL draft.  McPherson really opened eyes at training camp last season, and though the Eagles starting corners had no major injuries, took advantage of his opportunities and played pretty well in limited (179) defensive snaps during the 2021 season (He was a core special teams guy).  He gave up a 69.7 QB rating per PFF.  He has solid man coverage skills and knows what he’s doing in the Eagle zone defenses.  At this point the Eagles will not be drafting a corner in this draft with a premium pick, nor have they acquired a significant name at cornerback off a diminishing free agency market.  If the Eagles do not trade for a corner or pick up a big name release between now and camp, McPherson has the best chance to take Steve Nelson’s job this coming season.  

I would be an advocate, if the board falls their way on day 3, for the Eagles to continue their run of choosing players that have a good chance of pro bowls in their future.  The way to do that on day 3 is to select punter Matt Araiza, the best punting prospect in the draft for years, if not decades.  Araiza is a terrific left footed punter that booms his kicks, and puts a spin not natural for returners to handle.  He can also kickoff, and would not only help Jake Elliot save his foot for field goals, but would be a rostered backup if Elliot got hurt. Quite a weapon, and would be another likely potential pro bowler!  Add difference makers!

Kudos to Howie and the Birds for staying true to both their strategy (maintain strength at the line of scrimmage) and big board (select the best available player), two things Howie alluded to in his “pre-draft” interview with the press a week and a half ago!  The results appear promising.