Skip to main content

Data that Deceives

 

Yesterday, an interesting tidbit was highlighted in turfshowtimes.com “Rams News…” Mathew Stafford had the highest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL.  The Rams touted Stafford “as the single most productive quarterback when it comes to converting on third downs.”  Stafford deserves kudos for his 2021 accomplishments, this one included.  However, while this is a useful metric indicative of past success, it has been shown for a long time it is not a repeatable skill. 

Performance on third down plays a huge role in team success... Third down success keeps the offense on the field and the opponents defense reeling. It clearly maintains drives for the inevitable goal of scoring. While it’s an important aspect of evaluating a quarterback's past performance relative to wins, it's not a skill. QB’s who do well on third down over the long term are the quarterbacks who also do well on first and second downs.

Football Outsiders has shown that teams that play significantly better on third down than they do on first and second down in a given year tend to see that third-down performance regress back to their performance on the first two downs in the following season.  Similarly, teams that underperform on third down tend to see a positive bump the year after.  Football Outsiders refers to this as “the 3rd down rebound effect.”  One needs to evaluate overall quarterback success regardless of down.  Weighing 3rd down performance to forecast future 3rd down success is not appropriate prognostication.

Eagles Lessons: Where have we seen this before?  In the Eagles Super Bowl (2017) season, Carson Wentz was a 3rd and long magician- 44-for-71 (62%) for 727 yards, 7 TD’s,  117.5 passer rating.  On 3rd/4th & short, he was the NFL’s best (20-of-24 {83%} for 186 yards, 5 TD’s, 138.4 passer rating). 

Wentz’s third down success in 2017 hid an uncomfortable truth… Before third down, Wentz was a bottom 10 starter, with an EPA/play (EPA, Expected Points added, is a key stat in Football Analytics) that was 23rd.  His great success on 3rd downs delivered an MVP-like season, but, as Football Outsiders explains, it was not repeatable!

2020 was a similar aberration for Wentz statistically as things fell apart around him and he played poorly.  His other seasons, including 2018-2019 and his 2021 season with the Colts have been “OK.” 

Carson Wentz fooled us in 2017.  His subsequent injuries and reversion to the norm statistically on 3rd downs pulled his play into the middling area for QB’s.  Wentz will not be a world beater for the Commanders.  He’ll be an “OK” QB, likely better given health and the right players around him. 

As for Stafford?  He’s a good QB, but expect similar regression to the mean on 3rd down success next year!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

When to Overpay

  Managing a football team is about allocation of resources, AND timing.   All teams can look at some of their current players and say ” Yes, we overspent to acquire him. ”   The next sentence is the critical one.   Is it “ Boy, am I glad we did ” or is it “ We need to avoid those kinds of mistakes moving forward? ” Currently, DK Metcalf is entering the final year of a rookie contract that will pay him 4M.   The 2019 2 nd rounder is 358-3170-29 (Catches-Yards-TDs) in 3 seasons on 358 targets (60% catch%).   Seattle, in rebuilding mode, will listen to offers.   “Sticker shock,” given recent critical free agent or post-trade wide receiver signings will have the Seattle brain trust consider an asking price for Metcalf (Otherwise, they’ll need to deal with the reality that Davante Adams and Tyrone Hill got near 30M/Year as 2 of a very short list of “best” NFL receivers, while Christian Kirk’s new 20M/Year contract is for a guy actually a tier below Metc...
Post a Comment
Read more

Derek Stingley Jr.

  First round draft prospect Derek Stingley Jr. is a paradox.   The LSU cornerback had an incredible freshman season, a clear top of the 1 st round talent even that young.   But since… not so much.   A combination of injuries and COVID have forced his stock down in this year’s NFL draft. Injuries have limited him to 10 games over 2 seasons since the 15 he played his freshman year.   And based upon past performance, opposing offenses have shied away from attacking him, thus yielding less tape to evaluate: The Good (from his freshman tape): He had speed, quickness and recovery speed. He had great coverage technique in breaking with opposing receivers. He brought physicality and proper hand use in coverage. He was a playmaker… He had 6 interceptions. He was an All America cornerback in both 2019 and 2020 He’s the 2 nd highest ranked corner in this draft.   A good performance in his pro day on 4/6 could vault him to #1. The Bad: While he c...
Post a Comment
Read more

Eagles win 2023 Draft!

  Going into this 2023 draft / RFA (Rookie Free Agency) period, this author felt the greatest needs were, ironically, the Eagles areas of greatest strength… Offensive and Defensive Lines.   Why?   In addition to the loss via 2023 Veteran Free Agency of two Pro Bowlers (Javon Hargrave at DT and Isaac Seumalo at Right Guard), simple… age.   When managing a salary cap, ya can’t keep everybody), DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham and C Jason Kelce are likely entering their final seasons in 2023, and RT Lane Johnson appears to have just 2-3 seasons left.    These players have been extraordinary franchise cornerstones: Kelce- future HOF, Johnson can solidify that same stature over his few remaining seasons, Cox has legitimate arguments for the Hall of Fame, starting with being a member of the all-decade team of 2010-2019.   Graham, while not a Hall-Of-Famer, certainly belongs in the “Hall of Very Good” as a franchise icon including owning perhaps the great...
Post a Comment
Read more