QB Carousel

 

A 2022 QB carousel is starting to unfold.  The Eagles have interest since Jalen Hurts has a high floor but a low ceiling.  There are several QB’s whose 2022 home was uncertain as this off season commenced. 

3 of the top 10 NFL QB’s (probably better) are in this first bulleted list below. Two found 2022 homes today, and revelations about the third are anticipated Friday, 3/11. 

• Aaron Rodgers: He has some serious character flaws.  A prima donna who loves to highjack the news wire, he does not get along with his family and is a cad who revolves thru semiannual personal relationships.  He clashes with coaches and teammates, and he’s the jerk that misrepresented himself as vaccinated when he was not.    Ah, but he is also the supremely talented QB that won the NFL MVP last season… for the 4^th time.  And he has decided at age 38 to return to the Packers, his NFL home since college, and a team that went 13-3 in ‘21. Still, he has some similarities to Peyton Manning (14-13 as a playoff QB) in that his playoff record is also pedestrian (11-9, but 7-9 since his Supe win… Like Manning, given his position in the NFL pantheon of QB’s, more is expected).  He struggled vs. San Francisco in the divisional round this season, and although special teams cost the Packers the win, Rodgers did not help in the 13-10 defensive slugfest.  Still, the best squad in the NFC regular season will now retool around Rodgers and will start off, with the Rams, as conference favorites.  We’ll see if Rodgers can retain his fountain of youth.  I think he has a season or two of magic remaining in that right arm, but after that… Per this author, Rodger’s age & destructive personality were not an answer for the Philadelphia Eagles.
• Russell Wilson: Wilson’s 9-7 playoff record may seem similar to Manning and Rodgers, but since his Super Bowl win ending the 2013 season, and subsequent Supe loss the following year, he has not had nearly the supporting cast Rodgers (and Manning) had.  He is an elite QB, with 9 pro bowls in his 10 seasons.  Wilson has been involved in trade rumors for over a year, and those rumors turned to fact with a swap to the Denver Broncos for 4 premium draft picks (2 One’s, 2 Two’s) and 3 players.   Wilson is 34 and had a bit of a “down year” in 2021, handling a serious finger injury on his throwing hand.  His disappointment with the front office’s ability to bring in star talent beside him turned into acrimony when the team fired offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer in 2020 and returned to head coach Pete Carroll’s “run first” philosophy.  Wilson then wanted a change, and he now got it… But he heads to a Denver team that has not had a winning season since a 9-7 finish in 2016, was 4^th in the AFC West last year (they lost to the Eagles in Denver 30-13), have mortgaged their near time upper round draft capital (to acquire Wilson), and must play 6 against QB’s Pat Mahomes with the Chiefs, Justin Hebert with the Chargers, and Derek Carr with the Raiders.  Wilson is supremely talented and likely has at least 4 elite seasons left, but will be fortunate to garner a 3^rd place finish and a playoff spot in the tough AFC West.  To a large extent, Wilson controlled his destiny to Denver… Now he’ll need to live it.  His smarter move would have been Philadelphia, although the Eagles, unlike the Rams, are not “just” a QB away, and with Russell having about 4 premium seasons left, he was not an ideal choice for Philly at this time.
• Deshaun Watson: 22 women accused the Houston QB of sexual misconduct last year… He did not play in 2021 and has demanded to be traded.  Complaints released to the public were redacted but referenced “highly illicit acts.” Some of the plaintiffs will testify before a Texas grand jury on Friday (3/11) to see if he’ll be criminally indicted, and this will likely decide his immediate NFL future.    If he is indicted, it is hard to believe that a team would try to make a trade with the Houston Texans to acquire the 26 year old. That would mean giving up picks and players for a quarterback who, while one of the best in the league, could be on trial at some point in the future.  Purely from a football perspective, he is the best of the top 3 available given his youth.  Of course, his personality and leadership will be under serious question, and if the accusations have accuracy, a high character Jalen Hurts is the preferred Eagle.  However, if Watson is innocent of serious wrong doing, his skills warrant consideration. Cost?  If his character can be trusted moving forward, 3 first round picks plus Jalen Hurts and an offensive lineman like Isaac Seumalo or Nate Herbig would be a steep but legitimate fee for the star qb.

5 Middle tier (10^th – 20^th best) NFL QB’s could become available via trade.  None of these should be of interest to the Eagles, since they can be viewed as lateral moves-  Hurts, at 23, has room for growth and a ceiling that has a small chance to be better than this group, a good chance to be at least as good (or close to) this group, and a floor that should not be dramatically lower. 

• Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings QB, has 1 year left on his current contract, & could become available in a trade if not extended.  Per the Washington Post ‘Kirk Cousins numbers are spectacular, his record is mediocre, and his detractors are legion. He is one of the NFL’s highest-paid and most polarizing players. Statistics declare him elite quarterback and worthy of his salary, but the confidence he inspires and record he produces suggest Cousins’s full box scores are empty calories.’  Minnesota will likely want to decide if they’ll re-up on Cousins, a true dichotomy, before Free Agency begins 3/16. 
• Jimmy Garoppolo got the 49ers to the NFC championship game AGAIN this year.  Two years ago, he had a 20-10 lead in the Supe with half a quarter to play.  But when the pressure was dialed up, from both a Super Bowl and pass rush standpoint, he faded.  The 49ers drafted Trey Lance in ’21 to move Garoppolo and take advantage of Lance’s rookie deal.  His injury reputation continued in ’21 and is now dogging him too.  Garoppolo is good, but  per NFL analyst  Brian Baldinger “He’s just not good enough.” 
• Carson Wentz is not the MVP candidate of 2017, and comes with issues, but he still has talent.   Any chance of future success will be predicated on his and his team’s ability to recognize and manage his limitations (the impact of his injuries as he ages {29), and therefore become a good game manager. 
• Kyler Murray wants a contract extension.  By doing such a deal now, the Cards pay more now but less later on a longer term deal for a 24 year old good QB.  It depends on what the cost is now.  Of course, this sets a bad precedent for future Arizona negotiations, and Murray’s play did slip a bit this year. 
• Baker Mayfield underwent post New Years surgery to repair the torn labrum in his left shoulder that caused a disappointing, injury-plagued 2021 season.  While the Browns have endorsed Mayfield to return as their starter in the final year of his deal this season, he’s delivered as expected as a starter in only 1 of his 4 seasons so far, & Cleveland will allow him to play out his final season on his rookie deal.

The next group, talent-wise, is the top tier of 2022 Free Agent QB’s, passers who are at best the bottom third of the league’s starters, and, at worst, top notch backups… Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater.  Note, also, the value of Eagle backup Gardner Minshew will have for any Eagle negotiations (likely about a 4^th round pick). 

Seattle (Wilson gone), Carolina, Pitt, Washington, and Tampa Bay are all “in the QB market.”  Add Minnesota, Arizona, Cleveland & Indy if they do not stay with their above respective QB’s.

 

Eagles Lessons: The Eagles need to be mindful of the carousel for multiple reasons, most important being its impact motivating teams from 3/16 (Free Agency) onward.  This will provide an ability to forecast Free Agency activity, cap capacity, draft positioning and trade motivations.